Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Fernando, Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/03/31/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/04/01/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/04/03/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
On the 31 March 2015 a strong windstorm hit north-western Europe.the cyclones was named Niklas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Niklas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32138213
2. Description of the event
Cyclone Niklas was the third intense cyclone over the last days in March. The figures below show short forecasts (12h) of MSLP and precipitation.
MSLP and precipitation (12h forecasts)
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The plot below show 24-hour maximum winds on the 31 March.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 31 March and MSLP valid at 12z on 31 March.
24-hour max wind gusts 31 March
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3.3 ENS
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for winds gusts valid 31 March.
EFI and SOT wind gusts 31 March
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The next plot shows the probabilities of exceeding 10-year return period of maximum wind gusts. The top-left panel shows the verification based on ERA Interim.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases