Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Ivan. Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports: http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/09/30/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
Heavy convective showers affected the area around the French city of Montpellier where around 200 mm of rain were reported causing flash floods in the region.
2. Description of the event
The plot above shows the observed precipitation between 29 September 00UTC and 30 September 00UTC.
Precipitation and MSLP (12-hour forecasts)
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The plots above show 12-hour precipitation and MSLP from 12 hour forecasts valid at the time labelled in the plots.
z500 and t850 analysis
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The plots above show z500 and t850 analyses.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
HRES 24-hour precipitation
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3.3 ENS
Prob >100 mm/24 ECMWF
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ECMWF
Prob >100 mm/24h COSMO-LEPS
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COSMO-LEPS
EFI precipitation
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EFI for precipitation valid the 29 September.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases