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The aim of this page is to provide information and resources for the training course OP-WMO.  The course is suitable for those who have a genuine interest in ECMWF forecasting products and want to exploit fully the potential of these products in their daily duties, whether they are producing forecast bulletins or taking decisions that are affected by weather phenomena.

The courses are a mixture of standard classroom lectures and practical activities where real weather cases are analysed in details and attendees are expected to report on at the end of the training week. Networking among the attendees is encouraged by allocating time for the participants to present their work and share their previous experience with ECMWF products.

The courses are assessed by means of an online survey which allows the participants to include their feedback and suggestions for improvements. The learning outcomes are assessed separately using a self-evaluation method.

 

 

Pre-course programme

A list of pre-course activities is indicated below. Please note that these activities are integral part of the course and by completing them you will be able to get the most benefit out of the training week.

Pre-course activities

Introduce yourself to the other course participants and to the lecturers (click here to go to the forum)

Prepare a poster (click here for guidance, maximum size for poster: A0)

Go trough the Practical activity: A four-day forecast for the capital city of your country (click here for guidance and document uploading facility)

Browse through the list of suggested readings (see 'Suggested readings' in the list 'Resources' panel below)

Listen to the webcast (click here to start the MP4, if it does not start read instructions below in the 'Resources' panel)

timetable

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Blog Posts

 

Take the survey! click here

 

 

Resources

WEBCASTs

if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file (right click and choose 'Save link as' ) and play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software)

 

Case studies

Deep convection over tropical Africa

The case study presents a weather situation over tropical Africa. The aim is to show a variety of products based on ECMWF forecasts and some useful techniques in forecasting deep convection and severe weather events such as heavy rainfall. The focus will be mainly on how to use and interpret output from deterministic and ensemble forecasts including some sophisticated derived products such as the Extreme Forecast Index. The ingredient-based method will be applied to forecasting severe convection and tephigrams will be demonstrated as a useful forecast tool.

Click here to get the presentation from Flavio and Francisco

African easterly wave in West Africa

The group will be introduced to a recent weather event in Western Africa (one of the so called African Easterly Waves). The participants will analyse different forecast products and will make their forecasts for this event at different lead times. They will also be asked to try to think in probabilistic terms.

Click here to get the presentation from Yenenesh and Babatunde

Tropical Cyclone

We will discuss an event of heavy rainfall in the tropical Western Pacific last September. Forecasts from the high resolution model (HRES) and from the ensemble prediction system (ENS) will be analysed with emphasis on probabilistic forecasts, model drift and ENS products (for example Extreme Forecast Index and Tropical Cyclone products). The use of Seasonal Forecast products will be also discussed in the practicl session.

Click here to get the presentation from Supari, Beatriz and Alexander

A winter weather event

This case will be from a recent winter, focussing on a region in and around Northern China, and more specifically on the city of Urumqi. Students will examine ECMWF forecasts of different types, starting with seasonal ranges, and then getting getting closer and closer to the 'event'. At each stage they will be asked to provide simple forecast guidance using this information.

Click here to get the presentation from Oja, Ning, Lina and Makhbuba

Lectures

You can download lectures from here:

  • click on the title to get the mp4 (if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file by right clicking and choosing 'Save link as' . Play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software))
  • click on 'pdf' to get the file in pdf 
Lecturer
Title
Lecturer
Title

A. Ghelli

  • Introducing ECMWF (pdf)

  • What do verification scores tell us? (pdf)

M. Bonavita

Data assimilation (pdf)

A. Beljiard

Model Physics (pdf)

F. Prates

 Forecasting tropical cyclones in the medium range (pdf)

J. Bidlot

Wave forecasting (pdf)

D. Richardson

  Ensemble forecasts: can they help making decisions? (pdf)

M. Dahoui

Use of satellite observations (pdf)

I. Tsonevsky

Forecasting extreme events (pdf)

L. Ferranti

A. BenedettiMACC-II NRT and ReAnalysis products (pdf)
C. SahinIntroduction to ecCharts (pdf)F. PappenbergerGloFas: Ensemble streamflow predicitons (pdf)
Verification Methods - Resources

 

EUMETCAL e-training module on verification:

The link below will take you to an e-training module on verification methods. There are four parts to it: Introduction, Verification of continuous variables, Verification of categorical forecasts and Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts. This module will help you to learn about verification techniques for deterministic and probability forecast. Try to complete all the parts and in case you run out of time look at the Introduction, Verification of categorical forecasts and Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts. There will be a 'Taking stock' session during the training week when verification techniques will be discussed starting from the exercises you have done in the module:

VERIFICATION METHODS

Posters

The posters presented by the students are here! 

 Oyunjargal  (Mongolia)

Babatunde (Nigeria)

Beatriz (Sweden, Costa Rica)

Makbuba (Kyrgyz Republic)

Yeneneshw (Ethiopia)

Lina and Ning (China)

Supari (Indonesia)

Alexander (Solomon Islands)

Francisco (Angola)


The aim of this page is to provide information and resources for the training course OP-I and OP-II.  The course is suitable for those who have a genuine interest in ECMWF forecasting products and want to exploit fully the potential of these products in their daily duties, whether they are producing forecast bulletins or taking decisions that are affected by weather phenomena.

The courses are a mixture of standard classroom lectures and practical activities where real weather cases are analysed in details and attendees are expected to report on at the end of the training week. Networking among the attendees is encouraged by allocating time for the participants to present their work and share their previous experience with ECMWF products.

The courses are assessed by means of an online survey which allows the participants to include their feedback and suggestions for improvements. The learning outcomes are assessed separately using a self-evaluation method.

 

Pre-course programme

A list of pre-course activities is indicated below. Please note that these activities are integral part of the course and by completing them you will be able to get the most benefit out of the training week.

Pre-course activities

Introduce yourself to the other course participants and to the lecturers (click here to go to the forum)

Prepare a poster (click here for guidance, maximum size for poster: A0)

Go trough the Practical activity: A four-day forecast for the capital city of your country (click here for guidance and document uploading facility)

Browse through the list of suggested readings (see 'Suggested readings' in the list 'Resources' panel below)

Listen to the webcast (click here to start the MP4, if it does not start read instructions below in the 'Resources' panel) 

timetable

 

Resources and Activities
Pre-course activities

 EUMETCAL e-training modules:

The link below will take you to an e-training module on verification methods. There are four parts to it: Introduction, Verification of continuous variables, Verification of categorical forecasts and Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts. This module will help you to learn about verification techniques for deterministic and probability forecast. Try to complete all the parts and in case you run out of time look at the Introduction, Verification of categorical forecasts and Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts. There will be a 'Taking stock' session during the training week when verification techniques will be discussed starting from the exercises you have done in the module:

VERIFICATION METHODS

SLIDECASTs

if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file (right click and choose 'Save link as' ) and play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software)

This video was recorded during a lecture on Operational forecasting at ECMWF. It discusses briefly the components of the ECMWF forecasting system and products (about 20 minutes)

Practicals

Case studies

  1. Dealing with 'jumps' in the forecast (instructor led tutorial)

 

You can download lectures from here:

  • click on the title to get the mp4 (if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file by right clicking and choosing 'Save link as' . Play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software))
  • click on 'pdf' to get the file in pdf 
Lecturer
Title
Lecturer
Title

E. Andersson

Introducing ECMWF (pdf)

L. Isaksen

Data assimilation (pdf)

P. Bechtold

Model Physics (pdf)

F. Prates

 Forecasting tropical cyclones in the medium range (pdf)

J. Bidlot

Wave forecasting (pdf)

D. Richardson

  Ensemble forecasts: can they help making decisions? (pdf)

M. Dahoui

Use of satellite observations (pdf)

I. Tsonevsky

Forecasting extreme events (Webinar) (pdf)

L. Ferranti

R. ForbesSnowfall/Rain/Freezing Rain
C. SahinIntroduction to ecCharts (pdf)  

 

 

 

 

Go to home page

 

Take the survey! click here

2013 ECMWF Course:OP-I

2013 ECMWF Course: OP-II

 

Blog Posts

 

 

 

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