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Description of the upgrade
This cycle includes changes in the treatment of observations and improvements in the data assimilation and to the model. Quintic vertical interpolation in the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme has been introduced as well as the inclusion of a better surface albedo climatology making use of more data from the MODIS instrument.
New Metrics of Tropical Cyclone (TC) “size” will supplement the existing forecasts of TC track and intensity. We encourage users of these BUFR data to test their decoding software, see New Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii product.
#IFS47r1 #newfcsystem @ECMWF
NEWS!
CIN and EFI for CAPE and CAPE-shear have been reviewed. List of new and changed parameters now available
Interactive ENS and HRES scorecards are now available
The next two webinars will be
- 27th May 2020 at 8:30 UTC - join the webinar
- 28th May 2020 at 14:30 UTC - join the webinar
Implementation timeline
Meteorological content
The changes in this model cycle cover the Data Assimilation, treatment of observations and improvements to the model itself
Meteorological impact
New metrics for Tropical cyclones
- Metrics of Tropical Cyclone (TC) “size” will supplement the existing forecasts of TC track and intensity (minimum central mean sea level pressure and maximum wind around a TC).
- Wind attributes for Tropical cyclones
Convective inhibition
For Convective Inhibition (CIN) the following two changes will be implemented:
- CIN is computed with a completely revised code using virtual temperature correction;
- CIN and Convective Available Potential energy (CAPE) both refer to the same (most unstable) parcel curve.
This will provide an estimate for CIN which is much more in line with parcel theory and forecasting practice and will improve usability for diagnosing deep moist convection.
Additional details: Changes in CIN to concur with forecasting practice
EFI
For the computation of EFI and SOT in IFS cycle 47r1 mxcape6 and mxcapes6 will be used instead of cape and capes, respectively. This change is aiming for a better sampling in the computation of the 24-hour maxima needed for the EFI. In effect with the change we extract the maximum within 24 hourly values, instead of using 4 6-hourly values.
Additional details: The EFI (and SOT) for CAPE and CAPE-shear start using mxcape6 and mxcapes6 parameters
Evaluation
The new model cycle brings improvements throughout the troposphere in the order of 0.5% in extra-tropical upper-air forecasts. The improvements are most apparent in the ENS scores, both against own analysis and against observations.
Scorecards presenting the new cycle performance are regularly updated:
New and changed parameters
New parameters
The table contains the list of parameters expected to be available with the model implementation. They will be available as part of the test data.
Param ID | Short Name | Name | Units | Component & type | GRIB edition | Level type | MARS | Added to Catalogue | ecCharts | Dissemination |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
229 | iews | Instantaneous eastward turbulent surface stress | N m-2 | HRES AN1) | 1 | sfc | TBC | TBC | ||
230 | inss | Instantaneous northward turbulent surface stress | N m-2 | HRES AN1) | 1 | sfc | TBC | TBC | ||
210186 | aluvpi | UV visible albedo for direct radiation, isotropic component | (0 - 1) | HRES AN | 1 | sfc | TBC | TBC | ||
210187 | aluvpv | UV visible albedo for direct radiation, volumetric component | (0 - 1) | HRES AN | 1 | sfc | TBC | TBC | ||
210188 | aluvpg | UV visible albedo for direct radiation, geometric component | (0 - 1) | HRES AN | 1 | sfc | TBC | TBC | ||
210189 | alnipi | Near IR albedo for direct radiation, isotropic component | (0 - 1) | HRES AN | 1 | sfc | TBC | TBC | ||
210190 | alnipv | Near IR albedo for direct radiation, volumetric component | (0 - 1) | HRES AN | 1 | sfc | TBC | TBC | ||
210191 | alnipg | Near IR albedo for direct radiation, geometric component | (0 - 1) | HRES AN | 1 | sfc | TBC | TBC |
1)FC parameters already provided.
Changes to existing GRIB parameters
Param ID | Short Name | Name | Description | Units | Component & type | GRIB edition | Level type | MARS | ecCharts | Dissemination |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
131089 | pts | Probability of a tropical storm | Probability of a tropical storm or stronger | % | ENS EP | 1 | sfc | |||
131090 | ph | Probability of a hurricane | Probability of a hurricane | % | ENS EP | 1 | sfc | |||
131091 | ptd | Probability of a tropical depression | Probability of a tropical depression or stronger | % | ENS EP | 1 | sfc |
For the Event Probability (type EP) parameters listed above the GRIB header has changed from using localDefinitionNumber=19 (extreme forecast index) to localDefinitionNumber=5 (forecast probablility).
Changes to existing BUFR parameters
Obstype | Name | Component & type | BUFR edition | MARS | ecCharts | Dissemination |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
32 | Tropical Cyclone track | HRES/ENS | 3/4 |
Technical content
Changes to BUFR encoding.
A new BUFR sequence has been designed to accommodate the new TC information. Technical information is available at:
New Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii product
Software
The software packages listed below provide full support for the new IFS Cycle 47r1 and will become the default on ECMWF platforms on Wednesday 3 June 2020, see Change of default versions of ECMWF and third-party software packages - June 2020:
ecCodes 2.17.1
Magics 4.3.3
Metview 5.8.3
Availability of test data from the IFS cycle 47r1 test suites
Test data will be available at the end of May.
Resources
Webinar on 'Cycle 47r1 overview'
The webinar slides are available to download.