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Occasions when there is a clear divergence between the latest and previous developments in the ensemble or ensemble mean occur increasingly rarely - but if it does the forecasters is in a difficult position. Nevertheless, there can be some agreement between the spread and jumpiness.
Combining and comparing results from different model runs can be achieved by:
- Grand ensembles: An ensemble of model runs using different models but starting from the same data times.
- Lagged ensembles: An ensemble of recent past and latest model runs merged into a grand ensemble. Lagged ensembles can include results from past ENS runs and/or from different models or both. (See Fig6.3.5).
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