Page History

...

A reanalysis is necessary for initiation of each re-forecast.   Spacial resolution are generally different between reanalyses and the model version used to create the re-forecasts.

ERA5

ERA-5

ERA-5 ERA5 is an improved and more comprehensive ECMWF climate reanalysis and is the fundamental initialising analysis for re-forecasts.

ERA products are normally updated once per month and within three months of real-time.  Quality assurance processing is applied to ensure consistency by removal of biases in models and observations.   Preliminary daily updates of the dataset can be available to users within seven days of real time.   ERA5 ERA-5 is available for dates from 1979 and is being extended forward in near real time.

ERA5 ERA-5 provides:

• a much improved representation of the troposphere.
• an improved representation of tropical cyclones.
• better global balance of precipitation and evaporation.
• better precipitation over land in the deep tropics.
• better soil moisture.
• more consistent sea surface temperatures and sea ice.

There is a potential problem related to inconsistencies between the model climate (initialised with ERA-5) and current real time forecast (Cy48r1).

The current real-time forecast (Cy48r1) uses new glacier fields and multi-layer snow scheme which are not included in ERA-5.  This inconsistency will be addressed in 49r1.

ERA-Interim (replaced by ERA-5 in 2019)

ERA-Interim is ECMWF's previous atmospheric reanalysis, based on a 2006 version of the IFS.  ERA-Interim data are available for dates from 1979 until 31st August 2019 but are no longer updated.  ERA5 ERA-5 replaced ERA-Interim in 2019.

The main differences of ERA5 ERA-5 from ERA-interim are

• • higher spacial resolution (137 levels, 31km; 62km for EDA).
  • higher output frequency of analysis fields (hourly, 3-hourly for EDA).
  • introduction of uncertainty estimates.
  • additional input observation types.
  • many more output parameters.
  • use of a much longer period of historical data (back to 1950).

...

The set of re-forecast ensembles is based on previous dates which can stretch back several  decades.    They differ in number and detail according to the IFS model configuration and are the basis for deriving the corresponding model climates.  These are described in the relevant section for medium range  M-climate , extended range ER-M-climate , and seasonal S-M-climate .

The procedures adopted for using re-forecasts allow for seasonal variations and model changes to be taken into account.  But note the model climates (M-climate, ER-M-climate, or S-M-climate) can nevertheless be different from the observed climate.

...

Forecasters should consider possible deficiencies in model climates when considering extreme forecast index EFI data.  For an example of the effect, see Fig5.3.4-1 and Fig5.3.4-2.  Such effects have also appeared in the extended range ensemble and seasonal forecasts.

Image Removed

Fig5.3.4-1(left): Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for 2m temperature for Days10-15, ensemble forecast run DT 00UTC 20 June 2017.

Image Added

Fig5.3.4-2(right): Cumulative Distribution Function(CDF) for 2 m temperature for Days10-15 in the middle of Lake Superior (red), with M-climate (black).  The initialisation techniques are different for real-time forecasts (using lake surface temperature observed by satellites), and for the re-forecasts (for which this information is not available).  This can lead to the model climate developing anomalously warm or cold lake surfaces and corrwspomdimg corresponding 2 m CDF temperature curve (black).   This affects subsequent extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) fields.   Here the realistic real-time forecast of 2 m temperature CDF (red) over Lake Superior is thus incorrectly flagged as having a strongly negative EFI value in Fig5.3.4-1(left).  

More information is given in Documentation and a full description of ERA5ERA-5.

More information regarding differences between ERA-Interim and ERA5ERA-5.

Additional sources of information

...