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The page will be updated as required. It was last changed on 1 March 12 May 2021.
For a record of changes made to this page please refer to Document versions .
Further information and advice regarding the upgrade can be obtained from the Copernicus User Support.
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The planned timetable for the implementation of the cycle 47r2 is as follows:
Date | Event |
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15 March 2021 (TBC) | Announcement of expected implementation date |
18 May 2021 (TBC) | Implementation |
The timetable represents current expectations and may change in light of actual progress made.
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Atmospheric composition content of the new cycle
Assimilation
- Update to TROPOMI SO2 assimilationNone
Observations
- No other changes compared to the observations used in 47r1.
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- Reduced volcanic outgassing of SO2 from certain volcanoes based on recent observations.
- Implemented cap on anthropogenic primary organic matter (OM) emissions to reduce excesses in highly polluted regions.
- Increased numerical precision in prescribed emission fields to remove artefacts.
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- Numerical improvements to the aerosol and chemistry schemes to accommodate running the forecasts in single precision as noted above.
Impact of the new cycle
A comprehensive evaluation report of the 47r2 e-suite has been prepared documenting all the changes and their impact on the forecasts. The changes of this upgrade were evaluated with independent observations for Q1 and Q3 of 2020:
- strong improvements for PM2.5 over China and India in both bias and RMSE because of reduced PM2.5 (the overall bias is now slightly negative)
- nearly neutral impact for PM2.5 and PM10 elsewhere. Where biases were increased, the RMSE was often improved
- small reduction in tropospheric and surface ozone, which is an improvement
- neutral results for CO
Technical details of the new cycle
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Date | Reason for update |
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19 February 2021 | Initial version |
1 March 2021 | Updated information about test data and implementation date |
12 May 2021 | Link to evaluation report |