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Analyses from DWD (11 January every 6th hour)


Analyses from SMHI

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Observations from Stockholm Arlanda (left) and Sundsvall () (from ogimet.com)

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Forecasts from 11 January 12UTC+12 for visibility (left), snowfall rate (middle) and total precipitation rate (right)


Forecasts from 11 January 12UTC+12 for visibility for operational forecast (left, same as above) and for 47r3 experiment (right).

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Metars from 3 airports along the Swedish east-coast:

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METAR/TAF for ESNO at 23:20 11/01/2021 UTCOrnskoldsvik Airport
METAR ESNO 112320Z AUTO 09021G31KT 1000
           R12/P2000N R30/P2000N -SN
           FEW002/// SCT005///
           BKN010/// M01/M02 Q0997=

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ecPoint

Probability for >20 mm/12h in raw ensemble (left) and

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ecPoint (right).


CDF for precipitation for Stockholm (left) and northern point (right)

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The plot below shows time-series of various parameters for a point in Southern Sweden in the forecast from 11 January 12UTC and the map for precipitation type for step 12.

2-metre temperature

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evaluate the forecasts for the cold spell that followed after the cyclone, the plot below evaluates the forecasts for 2-metre temperature over southern Sweden 14-16 January, for the region outline in the 1-3 day EFI plot for the same period below. The cold signal started to appear on 28 December.

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Seasonal anomalies

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Time-series of daily mean 2-metre temperature in Stockholm from 1 November to 1 April (x-value is 0 on 1 January 2021). The thin line is daily mean, think solid is 7-day running mean and dashed line is ERA Interim daily climatology.

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Seasonal anomalies

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