Status: Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, Esti, David L.
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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In the first days of October, storm Alex impacted large parts of western Europe. On the end of 1 October the cyclone rapidly developed and a sting jet feature formed and hit the coast of Brittany in France. The next day parts of south-eastern France and north-western Italy saw record rainfall and left at least 3 around 15 people dead. On the Floodlist link below you can see the impact.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54402096
The storm also resulted in the wettest day on record for UK: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54561601
2. Description of the event
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The plots below show EFI for 24-hour precipitation on 2 October.
The plot below shows EFI for the 1-day forecast for integrated water-vapor flux on 2 October. At this time there was a strong atmospheric river towards the south-western Alps.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 24-hour accumulated precipitation (2 Oct 06UTC - 3 Oct 06UTC) in the box over northern Italy outlined in the EFI plots above. The plot includes ENS (blue), HRES (red dot), ENS control (purple dot), observation (green) and model climate (red).
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