Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, ...
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, HRES - red, ENS control - blue, best track - black), position and intensity on 3 September 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 3 September (first plot) to 23 August (last plot). The cyclone was recognised as a tropical storm on 25 August.Three main shifts in the tracks: Majority of members towards Bahamas (26 Aug), easterly path (28 August) and northward turn (31 August)
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The plot below shows the cyclone intensity in terms of central pressure (top), maximum wind speed (middle) and the propagation speed (bottom) for the forecasts from 3 September 00UTC (first plot) to 29 September (last plot), all 00UTC.
3.4 Extended-range forecasts
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Missed rapid intensification starting on 31 August
- Reasonable capturing of the probability for slow propagation over the Bahamas and the northward turn before Florida
- Short notice about cyclogenesis