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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ivan
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
(To be added)On 4-5 September the low-pressure system named Storm Daniel produced extreme rainfall over south-eastern Europe, notably Greece where the one station measured more than 1000 mm/24h. The rainfall led to widespread flooding. Also in Bulgaria and Turkey the system caused damages and fatalities.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Daniel
From MedCyclones: https://medcyclones.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/MedCyclone_Daniel_v2.pdf
2. Description of the event
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Station precipitation from Greece: https://www.meteo.gr/UploadedFiles/articlePhotos/SEP23/compare_kakoκairies_ianos_daniel_meteogr.jpg , and some graphics below (unclear to which accumulation period it refers).
3. Predictability
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below show precipitation totals 4 Sept 00UTC to 6 September 00UTC from observations and HRES.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation (4 September 00UTC - 7 September 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.Note that sea points have been masked out. The square marks a 0.5x0.5 degree box around Volos in Greece, which got more than 600 mm.
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