Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: David L. , Linus
| Show If | ||
|---|---|---|
| ||
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
...
1. Impact
| Excerpt |
|---|
Livorno, Italy, experienced heavy rainfall on Sunday 10th September 2017 resulting in six fatalities; a BBC article giving more details is available here. The rainfall predominantly fell between midnight and 2am on Sunday |
2. Description of the event
The plot below shows the z500 and t850 analysis from 10 September 00z.
The map below shows the 24-hour accumulations from the local raingauges network around Livorno:
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
...
The plot below shows the evolution of the ensemble and HRES for 24-hour precipitation in Livorno 9 September 12z to 10 September 12z. The observed precipitation was around 150 mm.
The plot below shows the point-rainfall experimental product for the 98th percentile of the precipitation:
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
...
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
...
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
...