Versions Compared

Key

  • This line was added.
  • This line was removed.
  • Formatting was changed.


Info

The main task of C3S_34b_Lot2 is to produce Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the standard EURO-CORDEX EUR-11 area at 12.5 km horizontal resolution. During its four years the project has contributed to a doubling of the number of simulations resulting in a matrix of GCM-RCM-RCP-combinations with more than 130 members. The large matrix constitutes a most valuable dataset from which future climate conditions in Europe may be assessed. As the future climate is uncertain both due to uncertainties in what the future forcing conditions will be and how the climate system responds to this, and how climate models may project these changes, there is a need for supporting information for anyone that may want to use the data for various purposes.
Regional climate modelers have a long tradition of working with such information and in facing questions from a wide range of users. Documentation of such interaction can be a valuable component for a climate service provider. In C3S_34b_Lot2 emphasis has been not only on production of climate change projections but also on detailed analysis of results, documentation of experimental protocols, climate models etc. As part of making this documentation accessible to a wide range of users this report includes a broad sample of typical frequently asked questions (FAQ) for a number of topics including suggested answers. A more comprehensive document is the user guidance provided by EURO-CORDEX to which the interested reader is recommended for more in-depth discussions: questions below are originally written with the perspective of providing user guidance related to EURO-CORDEX results, however many questions are broad and applies in a more general sense. This could mean that they can also be used by users of CORDEX information from other regions in the world and also in general every climate projection data user. Please note that there is a comprehensive user guide document provided by EURO-CORDEX and can be found at https://www.euro-cordex.net/imperia/md/content/csc/cordex/guidance_for_euro-cordex_climate_projections_data_use__2021-02_1.pdf.
We note that, even if this FAQ is written originally with the perspective of providing user guidance related to EURO-CORDEX results, many questions are broad and applies in a more general sense. This could for instance mean that they can also be used by users of CORDEX information from other regions in the world and also in general every climate projection data user._.pdf

The main topics are based on The FAQ are separated in different categories suggested by the climate modelers in C3S_34b_Lot2 modellers as "typical" categories for which questions often arise. As an additional input we have used questions sampled from questions asked by attendees at the C3S webinar series (M34b_Lot2.0.1.3 Final conference, https://climate.copernicus.eu/c3s-webinars-regional-climate-projections-europe) held in early March 2021. The webinar series consisted of four separate webinars with between 200 and 500 attendees from all over the world. These questions span a wide range of topics that often directly reflects a user perspective.
Despite its broad scope this FAQ is not to be seen as an exhaustive document covering all aspects of regional climate projections and how these can be used for climate service purposes. Also, it is noted that for many questions the answers involve suggestions for users how to handle the information. Most often this involves careful investigation of potential limitations in the data with respect to their specific questions. It is our experience that such investigation often benefits from a dialogue with climate modelers who have expertise in the performance of models and experience of guiding others using the climate model projections for different purposes.Please have a look also at the User Forum  C3S webinars on regional climate projections for Europe for relevant topics from that webinar.  

The main topics has primarily been chosen based on experience by the regional climate modelers in C3S_34b_Lot2 modellers in dialogue with the ECMWF. In the process of selecting these topics the questions from the webinar series has been considered. The main topics fall into eleven different categories as listed below. For each question (underlined) it is attempted to answer in two levels where the first level is a short more general answer (in italics), while the second layer goes slightly more into detail sometimes including references for further reading when appropriate. We remind again about the user guidance provided by EURO-CORDEX for more in-depth answers to many questions (https://www.euro-cordex.net/imperia/md/content/csc/cordex/guidance_for_euro-cordex_climate_projections_data_use_2021-02_1.pdf). Depending on the question, sometimes the answer includes a short recommendation (in bold face) on what a user may need to consider when using EURO-CORDEX climate projection data and some specific links (in red), when the information can be already found elsewhere.
Marked in red are parts where specific links to other pieces of documentation at the CDS or elsewhere could be included if these questions are used at the Copernicus Knowledge Base (CKB) or similarExtensive literature references can be found below (also at the specific questions).

Expand
titleReferences
  1. Aalbers EE, Lenderink G, van Meijgaard E, and van den Hurk B (2016) To what extent is climate change detection at the local scale 'clouded' by internal variability? In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. 18, s. 10121.
  2. Addor N and Fischer EM (2015) The influence of natural variability and interpolation errors on bias characterization in RCM simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120. doi:10.1002/2014JD022824.
  3. Boé J, Somot S, Corre L and Nabat P (2020) Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences. Clim Dyn 54, 2981–3002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1
  4. Bärring L and Strandberg G (2018) Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter? Environmental Research Letters, 13 (2018), 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9f72
  5. Coppola E, Nogherotto R, Ciarlo JM, Giorgi F, Somot S, Nabat P, Corre L, Christensen OB, Boberg F, van Meijgaard E, Aalbers E, Lenderink G, Schwingshackl C, Sandstad M, Sillmann J, Bülow K, Teichmann C, Iles C, Kadygrov N, Vautard R, Levavasseur G, Sørland SL, Demory M-E, Kjellström E and Nikulin G (2021) Assessment of the European climate projections as simulated by the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres, 126, e2019JD032356, DOI: 10.1029/2019JD032356
  6. Cornes R, van der Schrier G, van den Besselaar EJM and Jones PD (2018) An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Datasets, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123. doi:10.1029/2017JD028200
  7. Deser C, Lehner F, Rodgers KB et al. (2020) Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 277–286, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2
  8. Eyring V, Bony S, Meehl GA, Senior CA, Stevens B, Stouffer RJ and Taylor KE (2016) Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–58.
  9. Hawkins E and Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, pp. 1095-1107, 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
  10. Kendon, EJ, NM Roberts, HJ Fowler, MJ Roberts, SC Chan, and CA Senior (2014) Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model, Nature Climate Change, 4, 570–576, doi:10.1038/nclimate2258
  11. Kjellström, E., 2004. Recent and future signatures of climate change in Europe. Ambio, 33(4-5), 193-198.
  12. Kjellström E, Thejll P, Rummukainen M, Christensen JH, Boberg F, Christensen OB, Fox Maule C (2013) Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions, Clim. Res., 56, 103–119, DOI: 10.3354/cr01146.
  13. Kjellström E, Nikulin G, Strandberg G, Christensen OB, Jacob D, Keuler K, Lenderink G, van Meijgaard E, Schär C, Somot S, Sørland SL, Teichmann C, and Vautard R (2018) European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459-478, DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-459-2018.
  14. Maraun D, Widmann M, Gutiérrez JM, Kotlarski S, Chandler RE, Hertig E, Wibig J, Huth R and Wilcke RAI (2015), VALUE: A framework to validate downscaling approaches for climate change studies. Earth's Future, 3: 1–14., https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000259Image Added
  15. Olsson J, Berg P and Kawamura A (2015) Impact of RCM Spatial Resolution on the Reproduction of Local, Subdaily Precipitation. J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 534–547, doi:10.1175/jhm-d-14-0007.1.
  16. Prein AF, Gobiet A, Suklitsch M, Truhetz H, Awan NK, Keuler K and Georgievski G (2013) Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations. Clim. Dyn., 41, 2655–2677, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1744-6.
  17. Sørland S, Lüthi D, Schär C and Kjellström E, (2018) Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains. Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 074017, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aacc77.
  18. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ and Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 93 485–98
  19. Tebaldi C, Debeire K, Eyring V, Fischer E, Fyfe J, Friedlingstein P, Knutti R, Lowe J, O'Neill B, Sanderson B, van Vuuren D, Riahi K, Meinshausen M, Nicholls Z, Tokarska KB, Hurtt G, Kriegler E, Lamarque J-F, Meehl G, Moss R, Bauer SE, Boucher O, Brovkin V, Byun Y-H, Dix M, Gualdi S, Guo H, John JG, Kharin S, Kim Y, Koshiro T, Ma L, Olivié D, Panickal S, Qiao F, Rong X, Rosenbloom N, Schupfner M, Séférian R, Sellar A, Semmler T, Shi X, Song Z, Steger C, Stouffer R, Swart N, Tachiiri K, Tang Q, Tatebe H, Voldoire A, Volodin E, Wyser K, Xin X, Yang S, Yu Y and Ziehn T, (2021) Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021Image Added.
  20. Torma Cs, Giorgi F, and Coppola E (2015) Added value of regional climate modeling over areas characterized by complex terrain—Precipitation over the Alps, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 3957– 3972. doi: 10.1002/2014JD022781.
  21. Vautard R, Kadygrov N, Iles C, Boberg F, Buonomo E, Bülow K, Coppola E, Corre L, van Meijgaard E, Nogherotto R, Sandstad M, Schwingshackl C, Somot S, Aalbers E, Christensen OB, Ciarlo JM, Demory M-E, Giorgi F, Jacob D, Jones RG, Keuler K, Kjellström E, Lenderink G, Levavasseur G, Nikulin G, Sillmann J, Solidoro C, Sørland SL, Steger C, Teichmann C, Warrach-Sagi K and Wulfmeyer V (2020) Evaluation of the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. DOI: 10.1029/2019JD032344
  22. Wilcke R, Kjellström E, Liu C, Matei K and Moberg A (2020) The extreme warm summer 2018 in Sweden - set in a historical context. Earth System Dynamics, 11, 1107-1121. DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020.

Button Hyperlink
iconinfo
titleLogin/Register to post to the Forums
typeprimary
urlhttps://wwwconfluence.ecmwf.int/auth/login/.action?os_destination=%2Fdisplay%2FCUSF%2Fforum
targettrue


Forum
overrideTextColorfalse
templatePageId
backgroundColor#4a6785
showExcerpttrue
recursetrue
stickyOnToptrue
pageSize8
templatePageName
page
textColor#ffffff
overrideBackgroundColorfalse

Forum - Topic Status Column

Forum - Topic Title Column

Forum - Topic Author Column

Forum - Topic Number Of Replies Column

Forum - Topic Number Of Views Column

Forum - Topic Last Activity Date Column

...