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News
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Cycle 46r1 live-streamed seminars
We have organised two live-streamed seminars to introduce the new IFS cycle 46r1. The first seminar has mainly covered the Scientific changes made in the new Cycle (see recording and slides below). The second seminar focused more on the meteorological impact and scores of the new cycle, with details on how to access the Cycle 46r1 release candidate test data.
The recording of the first cycle 46r1 seminar is available at https://ecmwf.adobeconnect.com/pgy081jw03ya/. The presentation slides are also available separately at https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/medialibrary/2019-02/46r1_overview_AndyBrown.pdf.
The recording and slides of the second cycle 46r1 seminar are available under https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/ecmwf-holds-webinars-june-upgrade-its-forecasting-system.
Timetable for implementation
The planned timetable for the implementation of the cycle 46r1 is as follows:
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Expected date of implementation
The timetable represents current expectations and may change in light of actual progress made.
Meteorological content of the new cycle
Assimilation
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Technical details of the new cycle
Changes to GRIB encoding
Model identifiers
The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 46r1 will be changed as follows:
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Sea Surface Temperature
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With the new IFS cycle 46r1, the ecCodes key "localDefinitionNumber" for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analyses at 00Z and 12Z will be changed from 17 to 1, both in dissemination and in MARS. With this change, all SST and Sea Ice fields for the analyses and Forecasts will be harmonised. |
New model output parameters
Extended output have been added in cycle 46r1, including a subset of ocean fields on the atmospheric grid.
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Near-surface wind output
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Wave induced mean sea level correction
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Sea-ice thickness
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This parameter is the gravitational potential energy of a unit mass, at a particular location, relative to mean sea level.
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Potential Temperature
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Pressure
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HRES / ENS *
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This parameter is the mass of water vapour per kilogram of moist air.
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HRES / ENS *
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This parameter is the eastward component of the wind. It is the horizontal speed of air moving towards the east, in metres per second. A negative sign thus indicates air movement towards the west.
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HRES / ENS *
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This parameter is the northward component of the wind. It is the horizontal speed of air moving towards the north, in metres per second. A negative sign thus indicates air movement towards the south.
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HRES / ENS *
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* The perturbed forecasts for the ENS only contain the parameters pt, u and v.
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Total precipitation of at least 25 mm
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Total precipitation of at least 50 mm
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Total precipitation of at least 100 mm
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10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s
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The speed of horizontal air movement in metres per second.
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The speed of horizontal air movement in metres per second.
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ENS
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This parameter is the temperature in the atmosphere.
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This parameter is the temperature in the atmosphere.
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ENS
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Water vapour flux index
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EFI and SOT for water vapour flux. See also here.
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ENS
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Changes in Cycle 46r1 data
EFI/SOT in the extended-range
With Cycle 46r1, the EFI and SOT become available in the extended-range forecast for two parameters: 7-day mean of 2m temperature and 7-day total precipitation. In contrast to the medium range, the model climate is derived from a set of 3 (rather than 9) re-forecast run dates, centred on the date of the real-time forecast initialisation (all are from 00UTC). The climate sample size is therefore much smaller and comprises 660 values compared to 1980 used in the medium range, but this does make the EFI and SOT consistent with other climate-related products from the extended-range forecasts, such as anomalies and probabilities. See also here.
New climatology for 850hPa Temperature anomaly probabilities
The outdated fixed climatology for computing historical 850hPa temperature anomaly probability parameters 131020 (talm2), 131021 (tag2), 131022 (talm8), 131023 (talm4), 131024 (tag4) and 131025 (tag8) is replaced by a new re-forecast-based climatology. The same climatology is also used to compute the Cycle 46r1 new (standard-deviation-related) 850hPa temperature anomaly probability parameters listed above. The new climatology is much more compatible with the real-time forecast. See also here.
A change to the computation of maximum CAPE and maximum CAPE-shear parameters
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Time-critical applications
Option 1 - simple time-critical jobs
Member State users of the "Simple time-critical jobs" framework can test that their scripts will work with the IFS Cycle 46r1 test data by using the limited ECaccess 'events' set up for this purpose:
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For these events, MSJ_EXPVER environment variable is set to 0073 and can be used to specify the IFS Cycle 46r1 test data in any MARS retrievals.
These events are intended for testing technical aspects only and should not be used for Time Critical activities.
Options 2 and 3
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Further reading
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Simon Lang, Elías Hólm, Massimo Bonavita, Yannick Trémolet (JCSDA, US): "A 50-member Ensemble of Data Assimilations" - ECMWF Newsletter 158. Available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/158/meteorology/50-member-ensemble-data-assimilations
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- test data in MARS
- recording and presentation slides for fist seminar
- further reading
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- expected date for implementation announced
- announcement of dates for second live-streamed seminar.
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- Test data in dissemination
- Meteorological impact of the new cycle
- technical change to Sea Surface Temperature.
- Changes in Cycle 46r1 data.
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- Scorecards availableww
- Data available in ecCharts and in ENS meteograms
- Issue with parameter mxcapes6
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- technical fix to storm ENS GRIB data
- Issue in 2T Model Climate affecting EFI/SOT
- Links added to further information on some new /changed parameters.
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- Issue with parameter mxcapes6 fixed
- Issue in 2T Model Climate affecting EFI/SOT fixed
- Re-run of the 6 re-forecasts between and
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- No changes to dissemination requirements allowed between and
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