Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, Esti, Ivan
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
1. Impact
Early on 26 August tropical cyclone Harvey made landfall on the TExas coast between Corpus Cristi and Rockport. Later the cyclone became stationary for 3 days (check) and a huge amount of rainfall fell over the region (locally more than 1000 mm) and caused massive floodings in e.g Houston. We do not yet know the final result from the cyclone.
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The series of plots below shows 3-day accumulated precipitation (26 August 00z to 29 August 00z) and MSLP valid 27 August 12z from HRES forecasts. The first plot is the accumulation from NEXRAD for the same period.
The plot below shows the evolution of the central pressure in Best Track (black) and HRES forecasts with different initial times. The forecasts before 25 August missed the rapid intensification the day before landfall. Also note how the forecast from 24 August 12z kept the intensify for a long time, probably because the cyclone stalled closer to the coast as seen above.
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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