Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Mohamed, Linus
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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1. Impact
In March 2017 floods and land slides hit West Peru (mainly in Lima) due to heavy rainfall. More than 70 people have died and thousands lost their homes. The enhanced rainfall activity is likely to be connected with abnormal high temperature anomalies in Northern West coast of Peru (around 4.5 C). The rain is mainly affecting coastal areas dominated by relatively high orography. northern Northern Peru was hit by severe flooding.
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the daily average precipitation between 1 and 31 March from observations (left), 12-24 hour forecasts (middle) and 120-144 hour forecasts (right).
3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly and seasonal forecasts
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots below compares 3-month (Feb-Apr) precipitation anomalies from 1 January for ECMWF (left) and EUROSIP (right). As seen above, ECMWF missed the anomaly for this initial date while the EUROSIP gave a consistent signal.
3.6 EFAS
Glofas flood forecast are clearly flagging the areas affected by the floods even tough the catchments are relatively small .
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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