Status Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim, Fernando, David
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/07/21/sc/ http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/07/23/sc/ http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/07/24/sc/ |
Picture
1. Impact
On the 24 July a low pressure system crossed the Channel and produced significant amounts of rainfall along the South-East of England with many places reported amounts exceeding 30 mm in 24 hours. The system moved then along the coast of Netherlands, Germany and S Denmark. Here the rainfall amounts exceeded 30 mm as well. On the next day the cyclone gave considerable amounts of rain in southern Scandinavia.
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The plots below show the time-series of scores for Europe. It is evident that the HRES scores was affected by this case.
Evaluation of cy41r2 HRES
24-hour precipitation 24 Jul 06z - 25 Jul 06z
41r1
41r2
24-hour maximum wind gusts (25 Jul 00z - 26 Jul 00z)
41r1
41r2
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows stamp maps of MSLP and 24-hour precipitation, all valid 24 July.
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
6. Additional material
- Report from Christian Grams, ETH (ask Linus for access)