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For evaluation of the outcome, see: 202101 - Snowfall - Sweden


For "Known Forecast Issues", see: Known IFS forecasting issues


Analyses from DWD (11 January every 6th hour)

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Analyses from SMHI

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Observations from Stockholm Arlanda (left) and Sundsvall () (from ogimet.com)


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Short visibility forecast

(See issue M9)

Forecasts from 11 January 12UTC+12 for visibility (left), snowfall rate (middle) and total precipitation rate (right)


Forecasts from 11 January 12UTC+12 for visibility for operational forecast (left, same as above) and for 47r3 experiment (right).

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Metars from 3 airports along the Swedish east-coast:


METAR/TAF for ESNN at 23:20 11/01/2021 UTCSundsvall-Harnosand Flygplats
METAR ESNN 112320Z AUTO 10020G33KT 0500
           R16/P2000N R34/P2000N SN
           VV007 M00/M00 Q0988=

...

METAR/TAF for ESNO at 23:20 11/01/2021 UTCOrnskoldsvik Airport
METAR ESNO 112320Z AUTO 09021G31KT 1000
           R12/P2000N R30/P2000N -SN
           FEW002/// SCT005///
           BKN010/// M01/M02 Q0997=

...


ecPoint

Probability for >20 mm/12h in raw ensemble (left) and

...

ecPoint (right).


CDF for precipitation for Stockholm (left) and northern point (right)

View file
nameecPoint12h_CDF_BT2021011112_lt12h_5925_1816.pdf
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View file
nameecPoint12h_CDF_BT2021011112_lt12h_6291_1736.pdf
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Snow accumulation

Known Forecast Issues S2 and S3.

The plot below shows time-series of various parameters for a point in Southern Sweden in the forecast from 11 January 12UTC and the map for precipitation type for step 12.

2-metre temperature

To evaluate the forecasts for the cold spell that followed after the cyclone, the plot below evaluates the forecasts for 2-metre temperature over southern Sweden 14-16 January, for the region outline in the 1-3 day EFI plot for the same period below. The cold signal started to appear on 28 December.

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Seasonal anomalies

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Time-series of daily mean 2-metre temperature in Stockholm from 1 November to 1 April (x-value is 0 on 1 January 2021). The thin line is daily mean, think solid is 7-day running mean and dashed line is ERA Interim daily climatology.

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