Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Esti, Linus
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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Picture
1. Impact
- At least 3 13 people have lost their life and 5 more are lost.
- Alicante Airport was forced to close for 24 hours due to the potential effect that Storm Gloria could have on the fire-damaged transport hub.
- Heavy snowfall has seen more than 1,000km of roads closed while in Valencia houses on the coastal frontline were evacuated as huge waves rolled as the storm hit on Sunday.
- Some coastal areas were really affected, (as Javea in Valencia region, in the photo)
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The plots below show satellite images from 20January 00UTC to 21 January 00UTC every 6 hour. (source: yr.no)
Sequence of satellite imagery corresponds to the snow Lake effect in the Cantabrian sea. Next two plots are the HRES simulated IR image on 20th January at 09 and 12 UTC.
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts every 12h hour between 18 and 21 January.
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The plots below show analyses of z500 and t850 every 12h hour between 18 and 21 January.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 20 January 00UTC to 21 January 00UTC (first plot) and HRES forecasts valid at the same period. The forecast plots also includes MSLP valid 20 January 12UTC.
The plots below show observations of significant waves in Valencia buoy (maximum peak between 00 and 03 UTC on 20 January. HRES forecasts valid at the same period and wavegram forecast for the location of the buoy.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 20 January.
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
Really good forecast in HRES 24-h precipitation in terms of location of the maximums and the amounts.Not so good for shorter periods, but still reasonable. EFI provided good guidance of the most affected areas in precipitation and wind gusts at least 7 days in advance. General opinion of our forecast from Spanish meteorologists (via social media and forums) is really good compared with other cut-off low cases in the same area.
6. Additional material
6.1. HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST:
Flood reporting points in Spain and France mediterranean coast and estimated discharge and return periods for Jucar river (Spain) with base time on 20th January 2020.Photos of the flood effects in Catalonia.
6.2. OBSERVATIONS PRECIPITATION and LIGHTNING (this last one registered in 48-h)
