Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, Jonny, Ervin
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On 15 March the tropical cyclone Idai made landfall in Mozambique causing many fatalities. The cyclone formed from a tropical depression that already had brought fatal floodings to Mozambique and Malawi the week before. During the second landfall a storm surge hit the area of Beira together with extreme wind and extensive rainfall leading to further flooding inland.
The evaluation of the case has been published in: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-47624156
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The plots below show EFI and SOT for rainfall on 15 March.Already the forecast from 9 March indicated the risk of extreme precipitation in southern Mozambique.
The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 14 March 12UTC to 15 March 12UTC for Beira. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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