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Most of the large errors seem to occur when the surface temperature is very cold, and the lowest levels may become extremely stable. In such very stable air tiny amounts of energy can correspond to large temperature changes at the surface because there is no convection to mix energy through the lower atmosphere. This is the main physical reason for large errors being relatively commonplace in such circumstances. Temperature errors often don’t depend strongly on the forecast range.
The near-surface inversion is likely to be most influential . It and errors more likely with high pressure and calm conditions. It is vital to compare the observed and forecast thickness and extent of low cloud and the temperature and humidity structure of the lowest atmosphere.
Effects contributing to temperature errors
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