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titleSatellite Data Assimilation (EUMETSAT/ECMWF))

Multiexcerpt
MultiExcerptNameSATtime
TimeMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFriday
9:30 -10:45Meet the students
The infrared spectrum- measurement, modelling and
information content
Tony McNally
GPS Radio Occulation: Extended applications
Sean Healy
Observation errors for satellite
data assimilation
Niels Bormann
Satellites for environmental
monitoring and forecasting

Richard Engelen

NWP_SAF_Engelen.pptx

11:15...12:30
Theoretical background (1)
What do satellites measure ?
Tony McNally
GPS Radio Occulation: Principles and NWP use
Sean Healy
The detection and assimilation of clouds in infrared radiances
Tony McNally
Background errors for satellite data assimilation
Tony McNally
Systematic errors, monitoring and auto-alert systems

Mohamed Dahoui

Dahoui_Satellite_2016.pptx

14:00...15:15
Theoretical background (2)
Data assimilation algorithms, Key elements and inputs
Tony McNally
Satellite information on the ocean surface (SCAT)
Giovanna De Chiara
The detection and assimilation of clouds and rain in microwave radiances
Alan Geer
Satellite information on the land surface
Patricia de Rosnay
Current satellite observing network and its future evolution
Stephen English
15:45...17:00
The microwave spectrum,
measurement, modelling and
information content
Alan Geer
A Practical guide to IR and MW radiative transfer – using the RTTOV model and GUI
James Hocking (UK Met Office)
Wind information from satellites
(Atmospheric Motion Vectors)
Katie Lean
1DVar theory, simulator + practical
session on background and observation errors
Tony McNally
Question and answer session,
course evaluation
 

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titleAdvanced Numerical Methods

Multiexcerpt
MultiExcerptNameNMtime
TimeMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFriday
9.15

Introductions

Expand
titleVertical discretisation

The goal of this session is to provide an overview of the use of generalised curvilinear coordinates in atmospheric numerical models.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • describe some important aspects of the formulation and implementation of the governing equations in generalised coordinates

  • describe various vertical coordinates employed in atmospheric models

  • indicate the use of generalised coordinates to employ moving mesh adaptivity

 

Christian Kühnlein
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titleHydrostatic/Non-hydrostatic dynamics, resolved/permitted convection and interfacing to physical parameterizations

During this presentation, we will discuss two of the questions faced by numerical weather prediction scientists as forecast models reach horizontal resolutions of 6 to 2 km:

  • Do we need to abandon the primitive equations for a non-hydrostatic system of equations?

  • Do we still need a deep convection parametrisation?

  • and we will show what answers to these questions are given by very high resolution simulations of the IFS.

By the end of the presentation, you should be able to:

  • discuss the limits of the hydrostatic approximation for numerical weather prediction

  • explain the dilemma of parametrizing deep convection versus permitting explicit deep convection at resolution in the grey zone of convection

Sylvie Malardel

 

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titleSemi-implicit integrations of nonhydrostatic PDEs of atmospheric dynamics

The aim of this lecture is to systematically build theoretical foundations for Numerical Weather Prediction at nonhydrostatic resolutions. In the first part of the lecture, we will discuss a suite of all-scale nonhydrostatic PDEs, including the anelastic, the pseudo-incompressible and the fully compressible Euler equations of atmospheric dynamics. First we will introduce the three sets of nonhydrostatic governing equations written in a physically intuitive Cartesian vector form, in abstraction from the model geometry and the coordinate frame adopted. Then, we will combine the three sets into a single set recast in a form of the conservation laws consistent with the problem geometry and the unified solution procedure. In the second part of the lecture, we will build and document the common numerical algorithm for integrating the generalised set of the governing PDEs put forward in the first part of the lecture. Then, we will compare soundproof and compressible solutions and demonstrate the efficacy of this unified numerical framework for two idealised flow problems relevant to weather and climate.

By the end of the lecture you should be able to:

  • explain the form, properties and role of alternative systems of nonhydrostatic PDEs for all scale atmospheric dynamics;

  • explain the importance and key aspects of continuous mappings employed in all-scale atmospheric models;

  • explain the difference between the explicit and semi-implicit algorithms for integrating nonhydrostatic PDEs, the importance of consistent numerical approximations, and the fundamental role of transport and elliptic solvers.

 

Piotr Smolarkiewicz

Course2016_smolar.pdf


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titleDiscontinuous higher order discretization methods

The aim of this session is to learn about recent developments in discontinuous higher order spatial discretization methods, such as the Discontinuous Galerkin method (DG), and the Spectral Difference method (SD). These methods are of interest because they can be used on unstructured meshes and facilitate optimal parallel efficiency. We will present an overview of higher order grid point methods for discretizing partial differential equations (PDE's) with compact stencil support, and illustrate a practical implementation.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • ell what are the advantages offered by discontinuous higher order methods

  • describe how to solve PDE's with discontinuous methods

  • identify the key elements that contribute to a PDE solver

 

Willem Deconinck
10.35
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titleNumerics + Discretization in NWP today
Using the 30-year history of ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as an example, thelecture is an introduction to the development and current state-of-the-art of global numerical weather prediction (NWP), as well as to the challenges faced in the future. It is intended to provide
an overview and context for the topics covered in more detail during the course.

By the end of the session you should be able to:
  •   describe the development of global NWP, the current-state-of-the-art, and future challenges
  •   identify relevant areas of research in numerical methods for Earth-System Modelling
  •   put into context every subsequent lecture and its purpose

Nils Wedi

Lecture_1_wedi.pptx

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titleMesh adaptivity using continuous mappings

The goal of this session is to provide an overview of the use of generalised curvilinear coordinates in atmospheric numerical models.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • describe some important aspects of the formulation and implementation of the governing equations in generalised coordinates

  • describe various vertical coordinates employed in atmospheric models

  • indicate the use of generalised coordinates to employ moving mesh adaptivity

 

Christian Kühnlein


kuehnlein_EC_TC2016_W.pdf

Practical Session

 

 Willem Deconinck, Christian Kühnlein
Expand
titleSemi-implicit integrations of nonhydrostatic PDEs of atmospheric dynamics

The aim of this lecture is to systematically build theoretical foundations for Numerical Weather Prediction at nonhydrostatic resolutions. In the first part of the lecture, we will discuss a suite of all-scale nonhydrostatic PDEs, including the anelastic, the pseudo-incompressible and the fully compressible Euler equations of atmospheric dynamics. First we will introduce the three sets of nonhydrostatic governing equations written in a physically intuitive Cartesian vector form, in abstraction from the model geometry and the coordinate frame adopted. Then, we will combine the three sets into a single set recast in a form of the conservation laws consistent with the problem geometry and the unified solution procedure. In the second part of the lecture, we will build and document the common numerical algorithm for integrating the generalised set of the governing PDEs put forward in the first part of the lecture. Then, we will compare soundproof and compressible solutions and demonstrate the efficacy of this unified numerical framework for two idealised flow problems relevant to weather and climate.

By the end of the lecture you should be able to:

  • explain the form, properties and role of alternative systems of nonhydrostatic PDEs for all scale atmospheric dynamics;

  • explain the importance and key aspects of continuous mappings employed in all-scale atmospheric models;

  • explain the difference between the explicit and semi-implicit algorithms for integrating nonhydrostatic PDEs, the importance of consistent numerical approximations, and the fundamental role of transport and elliptic solvers.

Piotr Smolarkiewicz

Expand
titleDiscontinuous higher order discretization methods

The aim of this session is to learn about recent developments in discontinuous higher order spatial discretization methods, such as the Discontinuous Galerkin method (DG), and the Spectral Difference method (SD). These methods are of interest because they can be used on unstructured meshes and facilitate optimal parallel efficiency. We will present an overview of higher order grid point methods for discretizing partial differential equations (PDE's) with compact stencil support, and illustrate a practical implementation.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • ell what are the advantages offered by discontinuous higher order methods

  • describe how to solve PDE's with discontinuous methods

  • identify the key elements that contribute to a PDE solver

Willem Deconinck

11.45

 


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titleThe spectral transform method
The success of the spectral transform method in global NWP in comparison to alternative methods has been overwhelming, with many operational forecast centres (including ECMWF) having madethe spectral transform their method of choice. The lecture will introduce the basic elements of the spectral transform, explain why it has been successful and describe recent developments such as
the fast Legendre transform.

By the end of the session you should be able to:
  •   explain what the spectral transform method is, how it is applied, and describe the latest developments at ECMWF.
  •   give reasons why it is successful for global NWP and climate.
  •   identify potential disadvantages of the method.

Nils Wedi

Lecture_2_wedi.pptx


 

 

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titleTowards an Earth-System Model

Recently, there is in increasing interest in trying to understand the properties of coupled atmosphere, ocean-wave, ocean/sea-ice models with an ultimate goal to start predicting weather, waves and ocean circulation on time scales ranging from the medium-range to seasonal timescale. Such a coupled system not only requires the development of an efficient coupled forecasting system but also the development of a data assimilation component.

During the two lectures I will briefly describe the components of the coupled system. It will be made plausible that ocean waves are an essential element of such a coupled system as through the wave action, momentum and heat are transferred from atmosphere to ocean. Also, the sea state determines to a considerable extent the efficiency with which momentum is transferred from atmosphere to waves, while ocean waves also play a decisive role in the evolution of the sea-ice edge. Results showing the importance of ocean waves on upper-ocean mixing and on atmospheric circulation are discussed as well, while I will finish the lectures by presenting preliminary results from coupled data assimilation experiments.  

By the end of this session, the student will be able to:

  • discuss the impact of ocean waves on the coupled system
  • describe the different wave processes that are modelled in the ECMWF system
  • describe the impact of ocean circulation on the atmosphere

Jean Bidlot

Advance_numerical_method_for_earth_modelling_Jean_Bidlot.pptx

 

Practical Session

Willem Deconinck, Christian Kühnlein

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titleMassively parallel computing for NWP and climate

The aim of this session is to understand the main issues and challenges in parallel computing, and how parallel computers are programmed today.

By the end of this session you should be able to

  • explain the difference between shared and distributed memory

  • describe the key architectural features of a supercomputer

  • describe the purpose of OpenMP and MPI on today’s supercomputers

  • identify the reasons for the use of accelerator technology

 

George Mozdzynski


Massively_Parallel_Computing.pdf
Course wrap up and Certificates
14.00
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titleThe semi-Lagrangian, semi-implicit technique of the ECMWF model
The aim of this session is to describe the numerical technique used in the ECMWF model for integrating the transport equations of the hydrostatic primitive equation set. We will present an overview of the semi-Lagrangian method and how it is combined with semi-implicit time-stepping to provide a stable and accurate formulation for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS).

By the end of this session you should be able to:
  • describe the fundamental concepts of semi-Lagrangian advection schemes, their strengths and weaknesses
  • describe semi-implicit time-stepping and its use in IFS   
  • explain the important role these two techniques play for the efficiency of the current IFS system
  •  explain the impact that future super-computing architectures may have in the applicability of the semi-Lagrangian  technique in high resolution non-hydrostatic global NWP systems.

 

Michail Diamantakis


SLSI.pptx
Expand
titleTowards an Earth-System Model

Recently, there is in increasing interest in trying to understand the properties of coupled atmosphere, ocean-wave, ocean/sea-ice models with an ultimate goal to start predicting weather, waves and ocean circulation on time scales ranging from the medium-range to seasonal timescale. Such a coupled system not only requires the development of an efficient coupled forecasting system but also the development of a data assimilation component.

During the two lectures I will briefly describe the components of the coupled system. It will be made plausible that ocean waves are an essential element of such a coupled system as through the wave action, momentum and heat are transferred from atmosphere to ocean. Also, the sea state determines to a considerable extent the efficiency with which momentum is transferred from atmosphere to waves, while ocean waves also play a decisive role in the evolution of the sea-ice edge. Results showing the importance of ocean waves on upper-ocean mixing and on atmospheric circulation are discussed as well, while I will finish the lectures by presenting preliminary results from coupled data assimilation experiments.  

By the end of this session, the student will be able to:

  • discuss the impact of ocean waves on the coupled system
  • describe the different wave processes that are modelled in the ECMWF system
  • describe the impact of ocean circulation on the atmosphere

Jean Bidlot

Expand
titleIntroduction to element based computing, finite volume and finite element methods

The aim of two lectures is to introduce basis of finite volume and continuous finite element discretisations and relate them to corresponding data structures and mesh generation techniques. The main focus will be on unstructured meshes and their application to global and local atmospheric models. Flexibility, communication overheads, memory requirements and user friendliness of such meshes with be contrasted with those of structured meshes. The most commonly used mesh generation techniques will be highlighted, together with mesh manipulation techniques employed in mesh adaption approaches and will be followed by a discussion of alternative geometrical representations of orography. An example of unstructured meshes’ implementation to non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic atmospheric solvers will provide an illustration of their potential and challenges.

By the end of the lecture you should be able to:

  • understand applicability, advantages and disadvantages of selected mesh generation techniques for a given type of application.

  • appreciate importance of data structures in relation to atmospheric models and mesh generation.

  • gain awareness of issues related to flexible mesh generation and adaption.

 

Joanna Szmelter

2016.ppt2016.ppt


Expand
titleMassively parallel computing for NWP and climate

The aim of this session is to understand the main issues and challenges in parallel computing, and how parallel computers are programmed today.

By the end of this session you should be able to

  • explain the difference between shared and distributed memory

  • describe the key architectural features of a supercomputer

  • describe the purpose of OpenMP and MPI on today’s supercomputers

  • identify the reasons for the use of accelerator technology

 

George Mozdzynski

 


 

15.30
Expand
titleAlternative time-stepping schemes for atmospheric modelling
The aim of this session is to describe alternative (to the semi-Lagrangian) numerical techniques for integrating the transport equation sets encountered in NWP models. We will present an overview
of different Eulerian
time-stepping techniques and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each approach.

By the end of the session you should be able to:
  •  recognize the basic differences between semi-Lagrangian and Eulerian  approaches
  • describe differences, strengths-weaknesses of different time-stepping approaches such as split-explicit time-stepping, Runge-Kutta time-stepping
  • describe the basic features of different time-stepping schemes used in other weather forecasting models such as WRF, ICON

 

Michail Diamantakis


tstepping.pptx

 

 

Expand
titleHydrostatic/Non-hydrostatic dynamics, resolved/permitted convection and interfacing to physical parameterizations

During this presentation, we will discuss two of the questions faced by numerical weather prediction scientists as forecast models reach horizontal resolutions of 6 to 2 km:

  • Do we need to abandon the primitive equations for a non-hydrostatic system of equations?

  • Do we still need a deep convection parametrisation?

  • and we will show what answers to these questions are given by very high resolution simulations of the IFS.

By the end of the presentation, you should be able to:

  • discuss the limits of the hydrostatic approximation for numerical weather prediction

  • explain the dilemma of parametrizing deep convection versus permitting explicit deep convection at resolution in the grey zone of convection

 


resolution.pdf

Sylvie Malardel

PDC_grey.pdf


Expand
titleMesh generation

The aim of two lectures is to introduce basis of finite volume and continuous finite element discretisations and relate them to corresponding data structures and mesh generation techniques. The main focus will be on unstructured meshes and their application to global and local atmospheric models. Flexibility, communication overheads, memory requirements and user friendliness of such meshes with be contrasted with those of structured meshes. The most commonly used mesh generation techniques will be highlighted, together with mesh manipulation techniques employed in mesh adaption approaches and will be followed by a discussion of alternative geometrical representations of orography. An example of unstructured meshes’ implementation to non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic atmospheric solvers will provide an illustration of their potential and challenges.

By the end of the lecture you should be able to:

  • understand applicability, advantages and disadvantages of selected mesh generation techniques for a given type of application.

  • appreciate importance of data structures in relation to atmospheric models and mesh generation.

  • gain awareness of issues related to flexible mesh generation and adaption.

Joanna Szmelter

 


Expand
titleOperational and research activities at ECMWF now/in the future

In this lecture we will give you a brief history of ECMWF and present the main areas of NWP research that is currently being carried out in the centre. We then look at current research challenges and present some of the latest developments that will soon become operational.

By the end of the lecture you should be able to:

  • List the main research areas at ECMWF and describe the latest model developments.

Sarah Keeley and Erland Källén

ECMWF-Past-FutureNM_2016_EK.pptx


 

 


 

...

Expand
titlePredictability and ocean-atmosphere ensembles

Multiexcerpt
MultiExcerptNamePRtime

Time:

MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFriday
9.15-10.15

Introduction to the course

with Computer Hall tour

Expand
titleInitial uncertainties in the medium-range ENS (2)

In this session the generation of the perturbed initial condition of the ECMWF ensemble will be presented. We will discuss the ratio behind using singular vectors in the ensemble and how they are calculated. Then it will be explained how the singular vectors are combined with perturbations from the ensemble of data assimilations to construct the perturbations for the ensemble.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • explain the idea behind using singular vectors in the ensemble

  • describe how singular vectors are calculated

  • describe the construction of the ensemble perturbations

Expand
titleEnsemble data assimilation

The aim of this session is to introduce the ECMWF ensemble of data assimilation (EDA). The rationale and methodology of the EDA will be illustrated, and its use in to simulate initial uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (ENS) will be presented.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • know what is the ECMWF EDA

  • illustrate how the EDA is used to simulate initial uncertainty in ensemble prediction

  • understand the main differences between singular vectors and EDA-based perturbations

Roberto Buizza

RB_2016_05_TCL2_SVs_EDA_UPDATED_20160510.pptx

Expand
titleEnsemble verification (2)

Abstract: The lectures introduce methods of ensemble verification. They cover the verification of discrete forecasts (e.g. dry/wet) and continuous scalar forecasts (e.g. temperature). Various scores such as the Brier score and the continuous ranked probability score are introduced.

After the lectures you should be able to

  • explain what a reliable probabilistic forecast is and how to measure reliability

  • understand why resolution and sharpness of a probabilistic forecast matter

  • compute several of the standard verification metrics used for ensemble forecasts

Martin Leutbecher

 v2handout.pdf

 

 

Expand
titleCoupled ocean-atmosphere variability
This lecture provides a broad overview of the role of the ocean on the predictability and prediction of weather and climate. It introduces some basic phenomena needed to to understand the time scales and nature of the ocean-atmosphere coupling.

 

Magdalena Balmaseda

tcourse16_ocean.pptxtcourse16_ocean.pptx

Expand
titleInitializaton techniques in seasonal forecasting

 

 

Magdalena Balmaseda

tcourse16_Initialization.pptx


10.35-1135
Expand
titleIntroduction to Chaos

 The aim of this session is to introduce the idea of chaos.  We will discuss the implications this has for numerical weather prediction.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • describe what limits the predictability of the atmosphere
  • understand the need for probabilistic forecasting

Sarah Keeley

 Intro_to_ChaosPres.pptx

Expand
titleApproaches to ensemble prediction/TIGGE

The aim of this session is to illustrate the key characteristic of the nine operational global, medium-range ensemble systems. These are the ensembles available also within the TIGGE (Thorpex Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) project data-base. Similarity and differences in the approaches followed to simulate the sources of forecast uncertainties will be discussed, and their relevance for forecast performance will be illustrated.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • illustrate the main similarities and differences of the 9 TIGGE global ensembles

  • link the performance differences of TIGGE ensemble to their design

  • describe the main differences between singular vectors and EDA-based perturbations

 

Roberto Buizza

RB_2016_05_TCL3_TIGGE_UPDATED_20160509.pptx

Expand
titleWeather regimes

 

Franco Molteni

TCPR_Molteni_regimes.ppt

Expand
titleCoupled ocean-atmosphere variability - MJO


Frederic Vitart

 

TCPR_Vitart_2016_MJO.pptx

 
Expand
titleThe monthly forecast system at ECMWF
The aim of this session is to provide a general overview of monthly forecasting at ECMWF. We will review the main sources of predictability for the sub-seasonal time scale, including the Madden Julian Oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), land initial conditions and  their simulation by the coupled IFS-NEMO system. The skill of the ECMWF operational monthly forecasts
will also be discussed.

By the end of the session you should be able to: 
  •   List the different sources of predictability for extended-range forecasts 
  •   Describe the operational system used to produce the ECMWF monthly forecasts 
  •   Assess the skill of the monthly forecasting system

Frederic Vitart

 TCPR_Vitart_2016.2.pptx

11.45-12.45
Expand
titleSources of uncertainty
 

The aim of this session is to introduce the main sources of uncertainty that lead to forecast errors. The weather prediction problem will be discussed, and stated it in terms of an appropriate probability density function (PDF). The concept of ensemble prediction based on a finite number of integration will be introduced, and the reason why it is to be the only feasible method to predict the PDF beyond the range of linear growth will be illustrated.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • explain which are the main sources of forecast error

  • illustrate why numerical prediction should be stated in probabilistic terms

  • describe the rationale behind ensemble prediction

Roberto Buizza

RB_2016_05_TCL1_sources_uncert_samunc.pptx

Expand
titleEnsemble verification (1)

Abstract: The lectures introduce methods of ensemble verification. They cover the verification of discrete forecasts (e.g. dry/wet) and continuous scalar forecasts (e.g. temperature). Various scores such as the Brier score and the continuous ranked probability score are introduced.

After the lectures you should be able to

  • explain what a reliable probabilistic forecast is and how to measure reliability

  • understand why resolution and sharpness of a probabilistic forecast matter

  • compute several of the standard verification metrics used for ensemble forecasts

Martin Leutbecher

v1handout.pdf

 


Expand
titleClustering techniques and their applications

The aim of this session is to understand the ECMWF clustering products.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • explain how the cluster analysis works
  • use the ECMWF clustering products

 

Laura Ferranti

TC_clustering_2016.pdf

Expand
titleDiagnostics (2)
Increasing observation volumes and model complexity, decreasing errors, and a growing desire for
uncertainty information, all necessitate developments in our diagnostic tools. The aim of these
lectures is to discuss some of these tools, the dynamical insight behind them, and the residual
deficiencies that they are highlighting.

By the end of the lectures you should be aware of:
  •   Some of the key weakness of the ECMWF forecast system 
  •   Some of the diagnostic tools used to identify and understand these weaknesses

 

Mark Rodwell

20160512_TC_PR_Diags_2_02_for_notes_pages.pptx

Expand
titleThe seasonal forecast system at ECMWF

This lecture covers the essentials of building a numerical seasonal forecast system, as exemplified by the present prediction system at ECMWF.

 

  By the end of this lecture, you should be able to:

  • explain the scientific basis of seasonal forecast systems
  • describe in outline ECMWF System 4 and its forecast performance
  • discuss the critical factors in further improving forecast systems

Tim Stockdale

 

tc2016_seasonal.pptx

 

2.00-3.00
Expand
titleSources of predictability beyond the deterministic limit

The aim of this session is to understand how we are able to provide forecasts at long time horizons given the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.

After this session you should be able to:

  • describe the Lorenz idea of Predictability of the first and second kind
  • list examples of the elements of the Earth system that provide predictability on longer timescales
  • understand the type of forecast that we are able to provide beyond the deterministic limit

Sarah Keeley

Beyond_limit_upd.pptx


 

Expand
titleUsing stochastic physics to represent model error
  • explain the physical and practical motivations for using stochastic physics in an ensemble forecast;

  • describe the two stochastic parameterization schemes used in the IFS ensemble, and their respective purposes;

  • be able to identify the improvement in forecasting skill from the inclusion of stochastic physics.

Sarah-Jane Lock

StochPhys2016.pdf

 

Expand
titleDiagnostics (1)
Increasing observation volumes and model complexity, decreasing errors, and a growing desire for
uncertainty information, all necessitate developments in our diagnostic tools. The aim of these
lectures is to discuss some of these tools, the dynamical insight behind them, and the residual
deficiencies that they are highlighting.

By the end of the lectures you should be aware of:
  •   Some of the key weakness of the ECMWF forecast system 
  •   Some of the diagnostic tools used to identify and understand these weaknesses

Mark Rodwell

20160511_TC_PR_Diags_1_02.pptx

Expand
titlePost-processing of ensemble forecasts

This lecture gives an overview of ensemble and post-processing and calibration techniques. The presentation is made from the medium-range forecast perspective. The (relative) benefits of calibration and multi-model combination for medium-range forecasting are also discussed.

 

  By the end of this lecture, you should be able to:

  • describe a wide range of possible calibration methods for ensemble systems
  • explain which methods are suitable in which circumstances
  • discuss the merits of calibration and multi-model combination

 

Tim Stockdale
 

tc2016_calibration.pptx

2.45pm Discussion Session in the Weather Room

Expand
titleLatest forecasts

The latest medium, monthly and seasonal forecasts will be discussed in terms of out look and performance.

This is a combined event with the weekly weather discussion that ECMWF staff attend.

3.30-4.30
Expand
titleInitial uncertainties in the medium-range ENS (1)
The aim of the this lecture is to discuss basic concepts behind initial perturbation techniques.
After the lecture you should be able to:
  •   Understand the difference between singular vectors and breeding (ETKF) vectors 
  •   Explain why pure random perturbations do not work

Linus Magnusson

traning_2016_inipert1_lm.pptx

Expand
titleStratospheric impacts

 

Ted Shepherd

ECMWF_Predictability_2016_new.pdf


 

 


Practice Session:

 

Expand
titleLorenz '95 model

You get the opportunity to experiment yourself with an ensemble prediction system for a chaotic low-dimensional dynamical system introduced by Edward Lorenz in 1995. Experiments permit to study the role of the initial condition perturbations and the representation of model uncertainties. Various metrics introduced in the ensemble verification lectures will be applied in this session.

 

After the practice session, you will be able to use the toy model as an educational tool.

 

Martin Leutbecher

 

Practice Session:

Ensemble Verification

Linus Magnusson/Sarah Keeley



 


4.30-5.15

Understanding Ensembles Practical

 

 

 

5.15 Poster session and ice breaker

Lecture and Practice Session:

Expand
titleApplication of ENS: Flood

Abstract: The lecture is a short introduction to operational hydrological ensemble prediction systems, with focus on flooding. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is described. The lecture also contains a short interactive exercise in decision making under uncertainty using prbabilistic forecasts as an example.

By the end of the session you should be able to:

  • Describe the components in hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS).

  • Describe the major sources of uncertainty in HEPS and how they can be reduced.

  • Explain the difficulties in using probabilistic flood forecasts in decision making.

Fredrik Wetterhall

fred_flooding2016.pptx

Practical extensionPractical extension