Status Status:Ongoing analysisFinalized Material from: Linus, MeteoFrance (via Florence)
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The plot below shows the observed 24-hour percipitation from the EFAS network (6 October 06z - 7 October 06z). It seems like we did not get any observations from the narrow band of very high precipitation rates.
The next plot shows gridded precipitation values interpolated from rain gauges (provided from MeteoFrance).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots above shows the HRES forecast for 24-hour precipitation (06-06) from 6 Oct 00z (left) and 5 Oct 12z (right). As seen in the report from MeteoFrance, the band of very high precipitation rates are missing.
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- Compare this case with 201409 - Rainfall - S.W France (flash flood in Montpellier)
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- The ECMWF forecasts missed the heavy rainfall over l’Héraul, while the MeteoFrance models got it.
- Due to model resolution? (Orographic precipitation)