Venue :  L'

École Nationale de la Météorologie

7-9th June 2016.

Overview

This workshop will introduce participants to the ECMWF OpenIFS forecast model, with presentations and exercises based on a case study of storm Hurricane Nadine during the HYMEX campaign.

Outline programme

Start (each day) :  9.15am coffee, 9.30 start
Lunch                 : 12.30 - 2pm
Finish (7/8th)     :   5pm (latest)
           (9th)       :    4pm (latest)

Detailed programme

Prerequisite

Please read the paper: Pantillon, F., Chaboureau, J.-P. and Richard, E. (2015), 'Vortex-vortex interaction between Hurricane Nadine and an Atlantic cutoff dropping the predictability over the Mediterranean,   http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2635/abstract

Programme

Location: Room C059, ENM, MeteoFrance.

Tues 7^th June: Context and case study

9.15             Coffee

9.30      Introductions and workshop overview   - Frédéric Ferry (ENM) / Glenn Carver (ECMWF)

9.40      Presentation of the The HyMeX field campaign  -  Véronique Ducrocq (CNRM/GMME/D)

10.10     Hymex IOP6 and Nadine, a forecaster’s experience – Etienne Chabot (ENM/DER/PAM and CNRM/GMME/MICADO)

10.40   Break

11.15    Presentation on : Pantillon, F., Chaboureau, J.-P. and Richard, E. (2015), Vortex–vortex     Vortex-vortex interaction between Hurricane Nadine (2012) and an Atlantic cut-off dropping the predictability over the Mediterranean. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.. doi: 10.1002/qj.2635 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2635/abstract
                                                         -   Jean-Pierre Chaboureau (U.Toulouse)
 

10.40            Break

11.15 11.45    Introduction to OpenIFS and the exercises    - Glenn Carver (ECMWF)

12.30   Lunch

2pm     11.45    Introduction to Metview     - Sandor Kertesz (ECMWF)

2.30    Practical session: learning Metview and the virtual machine to visualize the Nadine case (20120920-20120924)

4.30pm Finish

12.00   Virtual machine setup and Metview practice (classroom)

12.30            Lunch

14.00     Practical session: Explore ECMWF analysis & deterministic forecast of Nadine & cut-off low

17.00     Finish

Weds 8^th June: Uncertainty and ensemble predictionEnsemble prediction and forecast sensitivity

9.15          Coffee

9.30   Ensemble prediction at ECMWF ECMWF    - Glenn Carver (ECMWF)

109.00  45   Ensemble prediction at convective scale with AROME - François Bouttier (CNRM/GMME/MICADO)

10.30  15       Break

1110.00 45 - 417.30pm 00 (lunch 12.30-2pm14.00)   Practical session with OpenIFS on Nadine’s forecasts

1. • ECMWF analysis and deterministic forecast

   • Analysis of the forecast error (RMSE)

   • Visualization of ensemble forecasts (plumes, ensemble spread, spaghettis, ...)

   • PCA and clustering

   • Exploring the uncertainty with OpenIFS : initial+model (EDA+SV+SPPT+SKEB, EDA+SV), initial (EDA+SV), model (SPPT+SKEB), "classroom ensemble” (SPPT+SKEB)

   • Group presentations and discussions

: Explore ECMWF ensemble forecasts of Nadine and the cutoff low

17.00   4.30pm  Finish

Thurs 9^th June: Case study (contd). OpenIFS single column model (SCM) exercise and convectiongroup presentations

9.15          Coffee

9.30   Hymex IOP6 and Nadine, a forecaster’s experience – Etienne Chabot (ENM/DER/PAM and CNRM/GMME/MICADO)

10.00  Practical session (contd), including:

• • Preparation of presentations

10.30  30       Break

10.45   Group presentations and discussion.

12.30        Lunch

14.00    Presentation of the OpenIFS SCM Single Column Model - Filip Vana (ECMWF)           Practical

• •  Practical session with the SCM model

16.00  

12.30-2pm  Lunch

2pm    Presentation, Discussions and debrief

4pm    Finish