Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Tim, Mark P., Francesca
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
1. Impact
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A tragedy involving over 60 fatalities unfolded on 17 June as a result of a severe forest fire outbreak in Central Portugal. |
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40316934
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Several factors contribute to fire risk, notably conducive weather (hot, dry, windy), and conducive conditions of the land surface (dry state, low soil moisture, material to burn). Additionally in this case there is the complication that lightning, from a 'dry thunderstorm' may have ignited the fires. During the week before the fires a heatwave affected the Iberian peninsula, and Cordoba, in Spain, may have recorded the highest ever temperature in Spain in June (44.5C) on Friday16 June.
The plot below shows the soil moisture anomaly in the top 3 soil levels in the model. A dry anomaly was present over the Iberian peninsula.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows the verification of 2-metre temperature anomalies for the week of 19-26 June from the monthly forecasts. Already the forecast from 4 weeks before the event had a warm anomaly for western Europe.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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