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Global Atmospheric Model
The ECMWF Atmospheric Global Circulation is a general atmospheric model that describes the dynamical evolution of the atmosphere worldwide on the resolved scale and is used . It is executed at resolutions appropriate for medium-range (currently 9km), extended medium- range (currently 36km), and seasonal forecasts . It is a general atmospheric model of uniform model physics and structure. It is executed on a global scale at several resolutions each appropriate to the forecast period(currently 36km). The model uses the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and . It has the most up-to-date description of the model physics . It employs throughout and includes atmospheric dynamical processes and a representation of the stratosphere. Throughout execution it employs modelled land surface conditions (e.g. snow cover, soil moisture, vegetation, etc.), and ocean conditions (e.g. sea-surface temperature, sea ice). Also included is a representation of the stratosphere and atmospheric dynamical processes. These together , etc.). Together these help deliver Rossby wave propagation, weather regime changes, etc..). However, a
A single execution of the model does not give definitive results
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. Any individual forecast may or may not be skilful and it cannot provide an estimate of uncertainty, or the confidence to be placed on the forecast. To address this problem an ensemble of
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forecasts is executed, each starting from a slightly perturbed analysis. The perturbations are not arbitrary but are designed to be what are believed to be possible truths. The members of the ensemble
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then represent the impact that changes to the initial conditions and physical parameterisations
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would actually have on the atmospheric evolution. This enables assessment of the uncertainty in the forecast, and also gives an indication of the predictability of the future evolution of weather systems.
Changes and improvements are outlined in the latest IFS model upgrade Cy48r1 .
Overview
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