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Useful links:

ECMWF Forecasts

ecCharts

IFS known issues

Severe event catalogue

Forecast User Guide

Assess the risk of severe convection over Europe using ECMWF products provided below. Provide a categorical forecast using the following categories:

  • Thunder (light green): thunderstorms are forecast usually non-severe or few non-organised severe storms

  • Slight risk (yellow): organised* severe storms which are not widespread

  • Enhanced risk (orange): an area of organised storms with varying level of intensity

  • Moderate risk (red): widespread severe thundestorms some of them intense; risk of supercell producing tornadoes and/or large hail (5+ cm dia.) or risk of an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds

  • High risk (magenta): A severe weather outbreak is expected with widespread damage; long-lived, widespread and very intense thunderstorms

*organised thunderstorms: thunderstorms that persist several hours and are capable of multiple and/or significant severe weather events


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