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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
Picture
1. Impact
On the 7-9 January south-western part of the Alps has got a lot of snow, and several of the ski resorts have been cut off (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42623293). Reports on internet talks about 2-3 metres in ski resorts like Tignes (Fr), Bonneville-Sur-Arc (Fr), Cervinia (It) and Zermatt (Ch). The ski report for Tignes and Val d'Isere say 110-160 cm of fresh snow in two days (Monday-Tuesday).
2. Description of the event
The plots below show short forecasts of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation spanning from 7 January 00z to 10 January 10z. The precipitation over the south-western Alps developed in the south-easterly low caused by a large-scale cyclone located in the western Mediterranean.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation accumulated between 8 January 06z and 9 January 06z from observations (left) and short forecasts from HRES (middle) and one member from COSMO-LEPS (right).
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation valid from Sunday (7 January) to Tuesday (9 January) from different initial dates.
The figure below show the evolution of the2-day (8-9 January) forecast for precipitation in Val d'Isere in France for HRES (red dot) and distributions from ECMWF ENS (blue) and COSMO-LEPS (green). The model climatology distribution is in red. The ENS clearly gained signal on 30 January and again on 3 January.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show weekly anomalies for precipitation for 8 to 14 January. Please note that the alignment with calendar weeks are not optimal for this case.
The plots below show weekly anomalies for MSLP for 8 to 14 January.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
See comparison with COSMO-LEPS above.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Difficult to evaluate the short-range forecasts due to lack of observation so far
- Good performance in medium-range 9-10 days before
- No signal on monthly scale (longer than 10 days)