...
T+072-096h:
T+096-120h:
T+120-144h:
Straight-line winds of 35 m/s have been reported at Stei weather station and they caused significant damage. At the same time a bow echo was observed in the radar imagery. CAPESHEAR parameter looks more extreme than CAPE in the forecast. This again suggests that deep-layer wind shear played a major role in the severe convective outbreak. CDFs for CAPE (left) and CAPESHEAR (right) over Stei are shown below.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
...