...
Early on 26 August tropical cyclone Harvey made landfall on the TExas coast between Corpus Cristi and Rockport. Later the cyclone became stationary for 3 days (check) and a huge amount of rainfall fell over the region (locally more than 1000 mm) and caused massive floodings in e.g Houston. We do not yet know the final result from the cyclone.
2. Description of the event
...
The figure below includes 3-day EFI and the precipitation from NEXRAD, valid 25 August 00z to 28 August 00z..
The plot below shows the ensemble evolution for 72-hour precipitation for Houston 26-29 August. The ensemble distribution is shown in blue box-and-whisker and HRES in red dot. The model climate is shown in red box-and-whisker positioned on 26 August.
...
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Early capturing Good early prediction of the risk for moving the cyclone to move into Gulf of Mexico
- Picked The forecasts picked up the risk the risk for heavy rainfall around Houston (especially HRES) from around 21-22 August . Model (4 days before the landfall). HRES generated more than 1000 mm/72h locally.
- Did The forecasts did not predict predicted the rapid intensification before landfallit started. However, RI is well known to be unpredictable, and I do know how much we should expect from a global model here.