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3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
During different stages of the evolution of the Hermine, extensive dropsonde missions took place, e.g by using the NASA Global Hawk platform. The plots below show the observation statistics for dropsondes for temperature (left) and wind vector difference (right) for the days with most dropsondes.
25 August 12z
30 August 00z
30 August 12z
31 August 12z
1 September 00z
1 September 12z
2 September 00z
3.2 HRES
The plots below shows the HRES forecasts from 25 August and 26 August 00z for the MSLP and rainfall for 30 August 00z. The figures illustrates the the change in the forecast regarding the cyclogenesis east of Florida around 29-30 August. The change in the forecast took place at 25 August 12z.
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
6. Additional
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