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If working in groups, each group could follow the tasks below with a different ensemble forecast. e.g. one group uses the 'ens_oper', another group uses 'ens_2016' and so on.

Choose your ensemble dataset by setting the value of 'expId':

Code Block
languagebash
titleEnsemble forecast datasets available in the macros
#The experiment. Possible values are:
# ens_oper = operational ENS
# ens_2016 = 2016 operational ENS
# ens_both = OpenIFS (EDA+SV+SPPT+SKEB)
# ens_initial = OpenIFS (EDA+SV)
# ens_model = OpenIFS (SPPT+SKEB) 
expId="ens_oper"

Ensemble forecast performance

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Panel
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titleQuestions
  1. How do the HRES, ensemble control forecast and ensemble mean compare?
  2. How do the ensemble members behave, do they give better or worse forecasts?

There might be some evidence of clustering in the ensemble plumes.

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Panel
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titleQuestions
  1. How does the mean of the ensemble forecasts compare to the HRES & analysis?
  2. Does the ensemble spread capture the error in the forecast?
  3. What other comments can you make about the ensemble spread?

If time:

  • set the 'members=' option to change the number of members in the spread plots.
    e.g. try a "reduced" ensemble by only using the first 5 ensemble members: "members=[1,2,3,4,5]".

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