Venue :  L'Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie

7-9th June 2016.

Overview

This workshop will introduce participants to the ECMWF OpenIFS forecast model, with presentations and exercises based on a case study of storm Hurricane Nadine during the HYMEX campaign.

Outline programme

Start (each day) :  9.15am coffee, 9.30 start
Lunch                 : 12.30 - 2pm
Finish (7/8th)     :   5pm (latest)
           (9th)       :    4pm (latest)

Presentations : 30mins duration

Detailed programme

Tues 7^th June: Context and case study

9.15      Coffee

9.30      Introductions and workshop overview -
                  Frédéric Ferry (ENM) / Glenn Carver (ECMWF)

9.40      Presentation of the HyMeX field campaign -
                  Véronique Ducrocq (CNRM/GMME/D)

10.10     Hymex IOP6 and Nadine, a forecaster’s experience – Etienne Chabot (ENM/DER/PAM and CNRM/GMME/MICADO)

10.40   Break

11.15    Presentation on     Presentation on Hurricane Nadine : Pantillon, F., Chaboureau, J.-P. and Richard, E. (2015), Vortex–vortex interaction between Hurricane Nadine (2012) and an Atlantic cut-off dropping the predictability over the Mediterranean. Q.J.R.M.S.  http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2635/abstract- Florian Pantillon /
                  Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
 

10.40   Break

11.45 15    Introduction to OpenIFS and the exercises - Glenn Carver (ECMWF)

12.30   Lunch

2pm     11.45    Introduction to Metview - Sandor Kertesz (ECMWF)

12.00   Virtual machine setup and Metview practice (classroom)

12.30   Lunch

2pm     Practical session: Explore ECMWF analysis & deterministic forecast of Nadine & cut-off low2.30    Practical session: learning Metview and the virtual machine to visualize the Nadine case (20120920-20120924)

4.30pm Finish

Weds 8^th June: Uncertainty and ensemble prediction

9.15   Coffee

9.30   Ensemble prediction at ECMWF - Glenn Carver (ECMWF)

10.00  Ensemble prediction at convective scale with AROME - François Bouttier (CNRM/GMME/MICADO)
(inc: optimal tresholds to use in order to deal with extremes with convective scale ensembles)

10.30  Break

11.00 - 4.30pm (lunch 12.30-2pm)   Practical session with OpenIFS on Nadine’s forecasts

1. • ECMWF analysis and deterministic forecastensemble forecasts

   • Analysis of the forecast error (RMSE)

   • Visualization of ensemble forecasts (plumes, ensemble spread, spaghettis, ...)

   • PCA and clustering

   • Exploring the uncertainty with OpenIFS : initial+model (EDA+SV+SPPT+SKEB, EDA+SV), initial (EDA+SV), model (SPPT+SKEB), "classroom ensemble” (SPPT+SKEB)

   • Group presentations and discussions

   • Forecast sensitivity

4.30pm  Finish

Thurs 9^th June: Case study (contd). OpenIFS single column model (SCM) and convection

9.15   Coffee

9.30   Hymex IOP6 and Nadine, a forecaster’s experience – Etienne Chabot (ENM/DER/PAM and CNRM/GMME/MICADO)

10.00  Practical session (contd), including:

• • Preparation of presentations

10.30  Break

10.45   Presentation of the OpenIFS SCM Single Column Model - Filip Vana (ECMWF)          

• Practical session with the SCM model: sensitivity experiments to convective parameterization, …

12.30-2pm  Lunch

2pm    PresentationGroup presentations, Discussions and debrief

4pm    Finish