In summer 2015 ECMWF introduced, in test mode, two new EFI parameters for forecasting severe convection, that are described below. The test period is now over: the parameters are now included in the ECMWF real-time catalogue (see here), and accordingly are available in dissemination. Charts based on the parameters continue to be available on the ECMWF web-site (here).
Explanation of the new parameters
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Further details and practical information about the EFI for CAPE and CAPESHEAR CSP are also available in the help section below the EFI web charts, at in the sub-section entitled "EFI for CAPE and CAPESHEAR" here: real-time EFI-related products (select the CAPE or CAPESHEAR chart, then page down to see/open this subsection).
Figure 1. EFI forecasts for A) CSP; B) CAPE; C) CSP where probability of precipitation above 1mm/24h is greater than 5%; D) CAPE where probability of precipitation above 1mm/24h is greater than 5%. The EFI signal disappears over a large part of Germany except the northern areas after filtering out EFI values where probability of precipitation above 1 mm/24h is less than 5%. Severe convection developed only over the northern parts of Germany, whilst oevr the rest of the country it stayed dry and sunny.