In summer 2015 ECMWF introduced, in test mode, two new EFI parameters for forecasting severe convection, that are described below. The test period is now over: the parameters are now included in the ECMWF real-time catalogue (see here), and accordingly are available in dissemination. Charts based on the parameters continue to be available on the ECMWF web-site (here).
Explanation of the new parameters
While a global NWP model cannot be expected to forecast individual convective cells, such a model can tell the user whether the broadscale environment is favourable for development of deep moist convection (DMC). Based on this premise, and following extensive testing, two new EFI parameters have been added to assist with the forecasting of severe convection: CAPE and CAPESHEAR (=CSP, for "CAPESHEAR Parameter").
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