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You will start by studying the evolution of the ECMWF analyses and forecasts for this event. You will then run your own OpenIFS forecast for a single ensemble member at lower resolutions and work in groups group to study the OpenIFS ensemble forecasts.
Recap
ECMWF operational forecasts consist of:
- HRES : T1279 (16km grid) highest resolution 10 day deterministic forecast
- ENS : T639 (34km grid) resolution ensemble forecast (50 members) is run for days 1-10 of the forecast, T319 (70km) is run for days 11-15.
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In practise many cases are aggregated in order to evaluate the forecast behaviour of the ensemble. However, it is always useful to complement such assessments with case studies of extreme events, like the one in this exercise, to get a more complete picture of IFS performance and identify weaker aspects that need further exploration. |
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To save images during these exercises for discussion later, you can use:
or
Printing. If hardcopy prints are desired please use the printer at the rear of the classroom and only print if necessary. |
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The case study will look at one of several severe wind-storms that hit Europe in late 2013 (see handout of ECMWF article by Hewson et al, ECMWF Newsletter 139).
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Recap
ECMWF operational forecasts consist of:
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title | Teams |
We suggest these exercises are best done by small groups working in teams.
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Exercise 1. Evaluating the ECMWF analyses and forecasts
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