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The case study will look at one of several severe wind-storms that hit Europe in late 2013 (see handout of ECMWF article by Hewson et al, ECMWF Newsletter 139).
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- HRES : T1279 (16km grid) highest resolution 10 day forecast
- ENS : Ensemble (50 members), T639 (34km grid) for days 1-10, T319 (70km) days 11-15.
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We suggest these exercises are best done by small groups working in teams. Suggestions are made in the exercises for how each team can work on different data. |
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If you prefer to see multiple plots per page rather than overlay them, please use the |
Task 2: Visualise operational
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HRES forecast
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The ECMWF operational forecast is called HIRESHRES. The model runs at a spectral resolution of T1279, equivalent to 16km grid spacing. Only a single forecast is run at this resolution as the computational resources required are demanding. The ensemble forecasts are run at a lower resolution. Before looking at the ensemble forecasts, first understand the performance of the HIRES HRES forecast. |
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Data is provided for multiple forecasts starting from different dates, known as different lead times. Available lead times for October 2013 are: 24th, 25th, 26th and 27th. |
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For this task, use the metview icons in the row labelled 'Oper forecast'
oper_to_an_runs.mv plots the same parameter from the different forecasts for the same verifying time. Use this to understand how the forecasts differed, particularly for the later forecasts closer to the event. oper_to_an_diff.mv plots a single parameter as a difference between the operational HIRES forecast and the ECMWF analysis. Use this to understand the forecast errors from the different lead times. |
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