SLIDECASTs if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file (right click and choose 'Save link as' ) and play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software) Suggested readings A number of articles are available here on various aspects of NWP, ECMWF model changes, medium and extended range forecast. ecCharts Please click here to find out how to get a userid and password Case studies (coming soon!)
| Section |
|---|
| Column |
|---|
| | Panel |
|---|
| bgColor | white |
|---|
| borderStyle | dashed |
|---|
| | Column |
|---|
| | | Panel |
|---|
| bgColor | white |
|---|
| borderStyle | dashed |
|---|
| Case 4 Focusing
Lectures
You can download lectures from here: - Recording of the lectures are available here. Click on the title to get the mp4 (if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file by right clicking and choosing 'Save link as' . Play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software))
- click on 'pdf' to get the file in pdf
Lecturer | Title | Lecturer | Title |
|---|
A. Ghelli | Introducing ECMWF (pdf) | L. Isaksen | Data assimilation (pdf) | P. Bechtold | Model Physics (pdf) | F. Prates | Forecasting tropical cyclones in the medium range (pdf) | J. Bidlot | Wave forecasting (pdf) | D. Richardson | Ensemble forecasting (pdf) | M. Dahoui | Use of satellite observations (pdf) | C. Sahin | Introduction to ecCharts (pdf) | L. Ferranti | | I. Tsonevsky | Forecasting extreme events (pdf) | | R. Forbes | Clouds and precipitation (pdf) | L. Magnuson | Understanding the model climate (pdf) | | T. Hewson | Extratropical Cyclones (pdf) | T. Hewson | Instructor lead activity: Dealing with jumps in the forecast (pdf) |
|
In this interactive session we will focus on apparent jumps, between runs, in ECMWF forecasts and how forecasters can perhaps deal with them. Examples will be included. The point will also be made that a sound forecasting system has to exhibit 'jumpy behaviour' from time to time.
Floods in Italy: how could ECMWF products be used to help the forecasters?
Find case study resources here
The students will be asked to construct forecast guidance for a cycle race around South Wales, for a summer-time situation, using a wide range of ECMWF products, that correspond to lead times between 45 days and 1 day.
Very mild weather conditions built over Europe during the second and third week of December. Will it stay mild between Christmas and the New Year or there will be a change in the weather conditions across Europe? What is the chance of snow and cold weather for New Year's Eve? The area of interest is the Balkans and in particular Bulgaria. The main focus will be on the use of ENS to assess the forecast uncertainty and to provide the risk of hazardous weather. What types of hazardous/adverse weather can you foresee?
A wide range of forecast products will be used from ECMWF high-resolution forecast (HRES), ensemble forecast (ENS) including monthly forecast to assess the forecast uncertainty and analyse all possible scenarios and their probability. In the end we will see the outcome and compare it with the forecast.
Find case study resources here