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titleResources

SLIDECASTs

if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file (right click and choose 'Save link as' ) and play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software)

Suggested readings

A number of articles are available here on various aspects of NWP, ECMWF model changes, medium and extended range forecast.

ecCharts

Please click here to find out how to get a userid and password

 

Case studies (coming soon!)

Case 4

Focusing
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Laboratories: severe weather case studies

 

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titleDealing with 'jumps' in the forecast (Instructor-led practical session)

In this interactive session we will focus on apparent jumps, between runs, in ECMWF forecasts and how forecasters can perhaps deal with them. Examples will be included. The point will also be made that a sound forecasting system has to exhibit 'jumpy behaviour' from time to time.

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titleCase study 1

Floods in Italy: how could ECMWF products be used to help the forecasters?

Find case study resources here

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titleCase study 2

The students will be asked to construct forecast guidance for a cycle race around South Wales, for a summer-time situation, using a wide range of ECMWF products, that correspond to lead times between 45 days and 1 day.

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titleCase study 3

Very mild weather conditions built over Europe during the second and third week of December. Will it stay mild between Christmas and the New Year or there will be a change in the weather conditions across Europe? What is the chance of snow and cold weather for  New Year's Eve? The area of interest is the Balkans and in particular Bulgaria. The main focus will be on the use of ENS to assess the forecast uncertainty and to provide the risk of hazardous weather. What types of hazardous/adverse weather can you foresee?
A wide range of forecast products will be used from ECMWF high-resolution forecast (HRES), ensemble forecast (ENS) including monthly forecast to assess the forecast uncertainty and analyse all possible scenarios and their probability. In the end we will see the outcome and compare it with the forecast.

Find case study resources here

 

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titleCase study 4

 Focusing on using a wide range of ECMWF products, here is your challenge:  plan the optimum ship route in TC conditions in the NE Atlantic.

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titleCase study 5

 The Christmas of 2013 was very mild in southern Scandinavia and windy in western Europe, caused by a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). People started to wonder whether there would be any winter at all. In this case we will look for a possible transition to cold conditions in the long-range forecasts (Part 1). When a possible transition approaching we will look into the possible scenarios for large-scale flow (Part 2). We will study the forecasts of a cyclone over southern Scandinavia (Part 3) and the connecting snowfall (Part 4). In the last part (Part 5), the forecasts will be evaluated and the limitations of the forecast discussed. The aim of the case study is to familiarise with different forecast products from ECMWF and also discuss the limitations of the forecasts

Find case study resources here

 

Lectures

You can download lectures from here:

  • Recording of the lectures are available here. Click on the title to get the mp4 (if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file by right clicking and choosing 'Save link as' . Play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software))
  • click on 'pdf' to get the file in pdf 
Lecturer
Title
Lecturer
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A. Ghelli

Introducing ECMWF (pdf)

L. Isaksen

Data assimilation (pdf)

P. Bechtold

Model Physics (pdf)

F. Prates

 Forecasting tropical cyclones in the medium range (pdf)

J. Bidlot

Wave forecasting (pdf)

D. Richardson

   Ensemble forecasting (pdf)

M. Dahoui

Use of satellite observations (pdf)

C. SahinIntroduction to ecCharts (pdf)

L. Ferranti

I. Tsonevsky

Forecasting extreme events (pdf)

R. ForbesClouds and precipitation (pdf)

L. Magnuson

Understanding the model climate (pdf)

T. HewsonExtratropical Cyclones (pdf)T. HewsonInstructor lead activity: Dealing with jumps in the forecast (pdf)

 

 

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titleVerification Methods - Resources

 

EUMETCAL e-training module on verification:

The link below will take you to an e-training module on verification methods. There are four parts to it: Introduction, Verification of continuous variables, Verification of categorical forecasts and Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts. This module will help you to learn about verification techniques for deterministic and probability forecast. Try to complete all the parts and in case you run out of time look at the Introduction, Verification of categorical forecasts and Verification of probability and ensemble forecasts. There will be a verification session during the training week when verification techniques will be discussed starting from the exercises you have done in the module and your practical verification activity:

VERIFICATION METHODS

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titlePosters

The posters presented by the students are here!