SLIDECASTs if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file (right click and choose 'Save link as' ) and play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software) Suggested readings A number of articles are available here on various aspects of NWP, ECMWF model changes, medium and extended range forecast. Case studies (coming soon!)
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| Case 54 Focusing on using a wide range of ECMWF products, here is your challenge: plan the optimum ship route in TC conditions in the NE Atlantic. Case 65 The Christmas of 2013 was very mild in southern Scandinavia and windy in western Europe, caused by a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). People started to wonder whether there would be any winter at all. In this case we will look for a possible transition to cold conditions in the long-range forecasts (Part 1). When a possible transition approaching we will look into the possible scenarios for large-scale flow (Part 2). We will study the forecasts of a cyclone over southern Scandinavia (Part 3) and the connecting snowfall (Part 4). In the last part (Part 5), the forecasts will be evaluated and the limitations of the forecast discussed. The aim of the case study is to familiarise with different forecast products from ECMWF and also discuss the limitations of the forecasts
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Lectures
You can download lectures from here: - click on the title to get the mp4 (if you cannot play it, please download the MP4 file by right clicking and choosing 'Save link as' . Play it locally with Windows media player, or quicktime or VLC (free software))
- click on 'pdf' to get the file in pdf
Lecturer | Title | Lecturer | Title |
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A. Ghelli | Introducing ECMWF | L. Isaksen | Data assimilation (pdf) | P. Bechtold | Model Physics (pdf) | F. Prates | Forecasting tropical cyclones in the medium range (pdf) | J. Bidlot | Wave forecasting (pdf) | D. Richardson | Ensemble forecasting (pdf) | M. Dahoui | Use of satellite observations (pdf) | C. Sahin | Introduction to ecCharts | L. Ferranti | Monthly Forecast (pdf) Seasonal forecasts (pdf)
| I. Tsonevsky | Forecasting extreme events (pdf) | | R. Forbes | Clouds and precipitation (pdf) | L. Magnuson | Understanding the model climate (pdf) | | T. Hewson | Extratropical Cyclones (pdf) | | |
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Dealing with 'jumps' in the forecast (Instructor-led practical session)
In this interactive session we will focus on apparent jumps, between runs, in ECMWF forecasts and how forecasters can perhaps deal with them. Examples will be included. The point will also be made that a sound forecasting system has to exhibit 'jumpy behaviour' from time to time.
Case 1
Floods in Italy: how could ECMWF products be used to help the forecasters?
Case 2
The students will be asked to construct forecast guidance for a cycle race around South Wales, for a summer-time situation, using a wide range of ECMWF products, that correspond to lead times between 45 days and 1 day.
Case 3