Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Trond Iversen and Ole Vignes (met.no)
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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Gallery includeLabel g7dr_24 sort comment title cy41r1 TC1279 (8 km) 24-hour precipitation
The plot below shows the 2.8 km AROME model from met.no/SMHI, initialised on the 27 Oct 00z and accumulated between 27 Oct 18z to 28 Oct 18z (provided by Ole Vignes/met.no).
3.3 ENS
Probabilities >100 mm/24h (27 Oct 18z -28 Oct 18z)
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Early warning from EFI
- Magnitude underestimated but HRES and ENS leading to too weak EFAS forecast
- 41r1 TC1279 performed well, together with high-resolution limited area models (Hirlam, AROME)