...
The plot below shows the 2-metre temperature anomaly from ERA5 for 3 to 5 January.
The plot below show daily mean (based on 00 and 12UTC) temperature over northern Sweden (land points inside 60-65N, 10-20E) based on ERA5. Daily values (thin), 7-day running mean (thick) and daily climatology (dashed). The time series starts 3 August and ends 8 January. Since the beginning of October, almost all 7-day running mean have been colder than normal for this region.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show analysis of 3-day temperature 3-5 January and forecasts from 1 December from IFS with 9 km resolution the the DestinE run with 4.4 km resolution.
The plots below show 24-hour forecasts (IFS with 9 km and 4.4 km) from 3 January 00UTC and observations.
The plots below show analysis of 3-day temperature 3-5 January and forecasts from 30 December from IFS (ENS control), and machine-learning forecasts from AIFS, PanguWeather and Graphcast. The box outlines a region between Vidsel and Alvsbyn.
...