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Fig8.1.9.6-4: CAPE-shear EFI, data time 00UTC 22 June 2017, valid for 00-24UTC 22 June 2013 (as on Fig8.1.9.6-3). EFI colours orange and red taken as indicating an extreme event likely. SOT values indicate the ratio of departures of ENS forecast values from the M-climate extreme considering the greatest 10% ENS members. The other charts show CAPE-shear values in the M-climate (derived on 19 June 2017) wherein only 1 in 10 occasions (central chart) and only 1 in 100 occasions realises more than the values shown. The existence of significant EFI and SOT, even some days in advance, should not be overlooked, particularly if the actual forecast CAPE-shear values are much greater than the M-climate values (at say the 90th or 99th percentiles) for the area.
Fig8.1.9.6-5: Maximum gusts (kph) during the period 12UTC to 18UTC 22 June 2017. Over Over 100kph in Central Germany associated with the widespread active thunderstorms.
Fig8.1.9.6-6: Rainfall (mm) in 6hrs during the period 12UTC to 18UTC 22 June 2017. Over 50mm of rain fell in Central Germany associated with the widespread active thunderstorms.
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