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New ways of forecasting the degree of sub-grid variability in precipitation totals have also been developed (Point Rainfall).  Future updates to the IFS may allow some of the convective precipitation (mainly as snow) to be advected downstream into adjoining grid boxes.

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Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) gives information on the the convective energy and the availability of low-level moisture.  CAPE can be a guide to the intensity of convection, but only if convection triggers.  It is only one measure of the potential for severe convection and thunderstorms.  Instability indices also give some indication.

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• available on ecCharts and web open charts:
  • CAPE MUCAPE and MUCIN (from CONTROL-10/HRES)
  • CAPE Extreme Forecast Index and CAPE-shear Extreme Forecast Index. 
  • probability of CAPE of CAPE and probability of CAPE-shear above or below a user-defined threshold.
  • 24h 4-value-maximum CAPE and CAPE-shear from M-Climate at various user-defined percentiles.

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