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Sea-surface temperature are initialised using:
- analyses received daily from the Met Office (OSTIA, 5 km resolution).
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NEMO and LIM2 , forecast changes in the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea ice evolution. Output from these programs These are used interactively by all IFS atmospheric models. HRES and ENS use the same initial ice extent.
Note: ECMWF uses LIM2 which is an earlier version of the Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model that is currently available (Version 3.6) The impacts of differently-evolving SST and ice cover distributions should be considered when comparing different forecasts, even when they are from the same data time.
Fig2.1.11: Sequence of sea-ice and sea-surface temperatures from the ENS CTRL run data time 00UTC 27 April 2017. T+0hr (00UTC 27 April 17), T+120hr (00UTC 02 May 17), T+240hr (00UTC 07 May 17), and T+360hr (00UTC 12 May 17). On such plots the climatological average sea ice cover is shown in pink (contour and stippling, for >50%), just discernible in the northern Gulf of Bothnia and in the White Sea. Dark purple areas (SST between 0C and -2C) are prone to ice formation if not already in existence. Areas of sea ice are shown as turquoise.
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It is important to represent uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions and in model structure. An oceanic EDA system achieves this. The perturbed analyses that result contribute through ocean-atmosphere coupling to the ensemble of forecasts used for probabilistic predictions at medium, monthly and seasonal ranges.
Considerations
The impacts of differently-evolving SST and ice cover distributions should be considered when comparing different forecasts, even when they are from the same data time.
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