| Case 4 Winter time visit to Budapest: An adventurous family is planning to visit Budapest in the middle of winter. Their plan is to explore the city and also to do some weather permitting hiking in the surrounding hills. As they travel with a toddler they would go hiking only in positive temperature range without too much precipitation. They need to rent a baby carrier for hiking from a company in Budapest and that costs significantly more coming closer to the event. The students will be asked to give weather forecasts (including probabilistic information to support the decision on whether to buy the carrier in advance or not) for this family using ECMWF forecast products from several weeks to few days in advance. Case 5 Focusing on using a wide range of ECMWF products, here is your challenge: plan the optimum ship route in TC conditions in the NE Atlantic. Case 6 The Christmas of 2013 was very mild in southern Scandinavia and windy in western Europe, caused by a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). People started to wonder whether there would be any winter at all. In this case we will look for a possible transition to cold conditions in the long-range forecasts (Part 1). When a possible transition approaching we will look into the possible scenarios for large-scale flow (Part 2). We will study the forecasts of a cyclone over southern Scandinavia (Part 3) and the connecting snowfall (Part 4). In the last part (Part 5), the forecasts will be evaluated and the limitations of the forecast discussed. The aim of the case study is to familiarise with different forecast products from ECMWF and also discuss the limitations of the forecasts. Check this out!
|
Dealing with 'jumps' in the forecast (Instructor-led practical session)
In this interactive session we will focus on apparent jumps, between runs, in ECMWF forecasts and how forecasters can perhaps deal with them. Examples will be included. The point will also be made that a sound forecasting system has to exhibit 'jumpy behaviour' from time to time.
Case 1
After nice summer weather over England during the last week of August a sign of significant change to colder autumnal weather conditions appears in the high-resolution forecast (HRES) for the first weekend of September. Starting from that HRES forecast our task will be to assess what will happen with the weather during the first weekend of September over England adding ensemble forecasts to assess the uncertainty of the HRES. We are particularly interested in the weather forecast for Reading area as well. Approaching the first weekend of September we will try to forecast the weather conditions over the UK till the end of September using ECMWF extended-range forecast.
Case 2
Floods in Italy: how could ECMWF products be used to help the forecasters?
Case 3
The students will be asked to construct forecast guidance for a cycle race around South Wales, for a summer-time situation, using a wide range of ECMWF products, that correspond to lead times between 45 days and 1 day.