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This guide is intended to give an outline of structure and use of the ECMWF IFS and . It also aims to show how the high-resolution forecast (HRES), ensemble forecast (ENS), extended range forecast and seasonal forecast models inter-depend and interact. Links to more detailed descriptions of processes are given, mainly at the end of each section, whilst separate online ECMWF training resources are also available to explain aspects of the ECMWF IFS more visually. Education is a key component of the work at ECMWF and further educational material is available through the web site (e.g. Webinars (recordings), Slidecasts (slides and audio recordings), Tutorials, Training lectures (presentations in PDF))
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Section 2 describes in broad, non-technical terms the ECMWF IFS (Integrated Forecast System (IFS) which comprises the global atmospheric model, the wave and the oceanic dynamical models, and the data assimilation systems). It gives an overview of the way the atmospheric model uses sub-gridscale parameterisations for processes within the atmosphere and at the surface. There are large differences in energy fluxes between land or sea and the atmosphere, and . Thus the definition of the model coastline by the land-sea mask is extremely important, not least in the way data is presented (e.g. for meteograms in coastal areas or on islands).
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Section 3 gives an overview of the way ECMWF graphical forecast products are presented to the forecaster and . It gives some insights into ways the analysed and forecast data may be reduced in accuracy by the way it is presented.
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Section 6 discusses how high-resolution forecast (HRES) and ensemble forecast (ENS) may be interpreted, . It suggests how best to combine their output, and considers the reliance that can be placed upon each as forecast lead-time increases. Each ENS member starts from slightly perturbed initial data and evolves a little differently from the other members of the ensemble to give a range of possible forecast results. The variation seen within the ensemble forecasts gives an indication of predictability of the atmosphere. The HRES should be considered as part of the ensemble during the initial 10 days or so and allows further information on possible outcomes through its use of a finer resolution. However, it is important to note that the HRES does not necessarily provide more accurate predictions just because it presents more forecast detail. The relative strengths of HRES and ENS products are discussed, and how best to use each model individually and together and the appropriate weighting to be used for each. The use of probabilities or other risk assessments is an essential part of building forecasts useful to the customer. This section emphasizes the benefit of using both models together to get the best description of evolution and uncertainty of the forecast state of the atmosphere.
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Section 8 concentrates on making best use of the extensive range of products available. The IFS produces a very wide range of products. Many forecast products regarding the structure of the atmospheric conditions and weather conditions can be viewed on the ECMWF Web Charts (Open Access) or ecCharts (ECMWF Members products which is delivered in the form of charts or GRIB format datasets. It is readily available to forecasters via:
- imports into their own workstation environments,
- on the web as Open Charts,
- using the highly interactive ecCharts (ECMWF members and Co-operating States) web-based application.
accessed through the ECMWF Forecaster page. Model climates are an important product produced within the IFS. These are: M-climate for ENS, ER-M-climate for Extended Range ENS, S-M-climate for Seasonal forecasting. They are a wholly model-based assessment of worldwide climatology based on analyses and re-forecasts over a period of years (currently 20 years, but 30 years for seasonal forecasting). Model products may be deterministic, probabilistic, or in the form of anomalies from normal where normal is defined by the model climates. ENS output in the form of charts, plumes, meteograms (and wave meteograms), and charts showing the various evolutions of tropical cyclones and extratropical depressions all give an easy-to-use presentation of data. Other charts give indication of the variability and uncertainty among the basic model forecasts or compare the latest model output with its predecessors. The model climates are used extensively to highlight occasions when weather conditions that have been forecast by the ENS are locally extreme for that time of year and for the given forecast lead time. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI), pioneered at ECMWF, compares the forecast probability distribution with the corresponding model climate distribution. The Shift of Tails (SOT) index complements EFI by providing information about how extreme an event might be by comparing the tail of the ENS distribution with the tail of the M-climate. The overall aim is to allow assessment of uncertainty to provide the customer with the best and most useful guidance possible.
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Section10 gives an outline of the way forecast data may be presented to the user using ECMWF . ECMWF Web Charts (Open Access), or through the give easy access to ECMWF IFS output. The more flexible and interactive ecCharts which allows allows users to pick-and-mix the IFS data to be presented.
Section11: Conclusion
Section11 highlights the continuing importance of the forecaster in providing a consistent and useful product to the customer.
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The ECMWF model output is delivered in the form of charts or GRIB format datasets, and . It is readily available for to forecasters via:
- imports into their own workstation environments,
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- on the web as Open Charts,
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- using the highly interactive ecCharts (ECMWF members and Co-operating States) web-based application.
Users are advised to keep themselves updated about changes and improvements to products and model processes through the ECMWF Newsletter and web site (e.g. via the Forecast User portal)
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