Tropical Cyclone We will discuss an event of heavy rainfall in the tropical Western Pacific last September. Forecasts from the high resolution model (HRES) and from the ensemble prediction system (ENS) will be analysed with emphasis on probabilistic forecasts, model drift and ENS products (for example Extreme Forecast Index and Tropical Cyclone products). The use of Seasonal Forecast products will be also discussed in the practicl session.Case 2 Click here to get the presentation from Supari, Beatriz and Alexander
A winter weather event This case will be from a recent winter, focussing on a region in and around Northern China, and more specifically on the city of Urumqi. Students will examine ECMWF forecasts of different types, starting with seasonal ranges, and then getting getting closer and closer to the 'event'. At each stage they will be asked to provide simple forecast guidance using this information. ????? Case 3 Click here to get the presentation from Oja, Ning, Lina and Makhbuba??????? | 
Dealing with 'jumps' in the forecast
Deep convection over tropical Africa
The case study presents a weather situation over tropical Africa. The aim is to show a variety of products based on ECMWF forecasts and some useful techniques in forecasting deep convection and severe weather events such as heavy rainfall. The focus will be mainly on how to use and interpret output from deterministic and ensemble forecasts including some sophisticated derived products such as the Extreme Forecast Index. The ingredient-based method will be applied to forecasting severe convection and tephigrams will be demonstrated as a useful forecast tool.
Click here to get the presentation from Flavio and Francisco
African easterly wave in West Africa
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Case 1
The group will be introduced to a recent weather event in Western Africa (one of the so called African Easterly Waves). The participants will analyse different forecast products and will make their forecasts for this event at different lead times. They will also be asked to try to think in probabilistic terms.
Click here to get the presentation from Yenenesh and Babatunde????