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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation valid 14 July 06UTC - 15 July 06UTC in the box over the Ardennes. Observation – green, HRES –red, ENS CF – purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts. The wet signal started to appear on 9 July and grow gradually stronger. From 11 July all ensemble median was above 99th percentile and from 12 July about the model climate maximum.
The plots below show the crossing-point forecast (CPF) for 1-day precipitation 14 July, from different initial times.
12-14 July
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 12-14 July, from different initial times.
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