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The two panels below show the ENS outcome forecasts expressed by the latitude (x-axis) when 2MT and T850 hPa dropped below freezing (for a fixed longitude near Fort Worth, Texas) as a function of the forecast lead time (y-axis, in days) for a same verifying time, ie, 9th February 2021 12Z (~06 Local time, prior to sunrise). The ENS systematically is under-spread and warmer near surface but not near the top of the boundary layer. . Vertical solid represents the outcome latitude (analysis).
Prediction of the peak of the event
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