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“Behind good forecast practices are often hidden good theories; equally, good theories should provide a basis for good forecast practices.”     Professor Tor Bergeron, personal communication, 1974                                         

                                   

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The aim of this User Guide is to help meteorologists make the best use of the forecast products from ECMWF - to increase understanding of the ensemble forecast process, to develop new products, to reach new sectors of society, to satisfy new demands.  The User Guide presents the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and advises on how best to use the output, not least on how to build up trust in the forecast information.  A good forecast that is not trusted is a worthless forecast.  The emphasis is on the medium-range forecast products, as this is ECMWF's primary goal, and because medium-range NWP output generally differs significantly from dealing with short-range or seasonal NWP.

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